Consensus PnL $170K · win rate 74% (23–8, n=31) · was PM monthly #998 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$169.5K
Record
23W / 8L
Win Rate
74.0%
of 31 settled
Batting Avg
68.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#613
Source
PM monthly #998 + pinned
Trades
4,716
Markets
76
Volume
$4.5M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 6 on the consensus side (83%)- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $166K · now 96¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $123K · now 95¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $22K · now 95¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes $14K · now 45¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (67% of 13)
- Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?No $7.0K · now 45¢ · in at 62¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes $2.6K · now 46¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (70% of 10)
Specialties
61 settled consensus markets · held side won 93% at an average entry of 85¢- Finance
+7 pts
side won 100% of 25 · avg entry 93¢
ROI +5%
- Economy
+9 pts
side won 100% of 10 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +4%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 0% of 4)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 100% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 100% of 5)
- 70¢ and up: 84%(won 100% of 51)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.