Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 46¢ · $9K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 70%

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

-$789.45

Smart Money Entry

56.8¢ → 46¢

-19% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 46%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares12,926

Combined PnL$-1.4K

No3 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,779

Combined PnL+$562.62

Yes — 70%No — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

1630h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

10 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SC schizohedgehogCTR	Yesavg 50.9¢	$2.9K	$2.6K	-$232.42	80% 48-12 (60)
aenews2	Noavg 42.2¢	$2.0K	$2.6K	+$562.32	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 65¢	$1.2K	$864.18	-$356.94	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
The-JokerCTR	Yesavg 67.9¢	$1.3K	$854.32	-$406.59	68% 1507-701 (2208)
eCashCTR	Yesavg 52.2¢	$939.21	$806.6	-$132.6	68% 331-155 (486)
Tenebrus7CTR	Yesavg 64.1¢	$493.85	$354.57	-$139.28	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
PMTraderAdamCTR	Yesavg 64¢	$384	$276	-$108	77% 830-249 (1079)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 46.1¢	$127.09	$150.86	+$23.78	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 40.8¢	$1.92	$2.3	+$0.39	51% 2516-2391 (4907)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 59¢	$1.1	$1.01	-$0.09	39% 175-269 (444)

schizohedgehogCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,872.04

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$232.42

Record

80%

48-12 (60)

aenews2

Invested

$2,015.17

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$562.32

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,221.12

Value

$864.18

PnL

-$356.94

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

The-JokerCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,260.92

Value

$854.32

PnL

-$406.59

Record

68%

1507-701 (2208)

eCashCTR

Yes

Invested

$939.21

Value

$806.6

PnL

-$132.6

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

Tenebrus7CTR

Yes

Invested

$493.85

Value

$354.57

PnL

-$139.28

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

PMTraderAdamCTR

Yes

Invested

$384

Value

$276

PnL

-$108

Record

77%

830-249 (1079)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$127.09

Value

$150.86

PnL

+$23.78

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

merod<$100

Invested

$1.92

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.39

Record

51%

2516-2391 (4907)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$0.09

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 46%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

1630h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

10 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.