Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 45¢ · $22K held · ends Feb 1, 2027

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Mon, Feb 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.3K

Combined PnL

$-3.3K

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 44.5¢

-13% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 45%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$21.5K

Total Shares48,764

Combined PnL$-3.4K

No4 traders

Total Value$562.92

Total Shares1,024

Combined PnL+$99.87

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

15 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 56% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SC schizohedgehogCTR	Yesavg 58.3¢	$18.9K	$13.6K	$-4.3K	80% 48-12 (60)
eCashCTR	Yesavg 41.4¢	$3.3K	$3.5K	+$247.11	68% 331-155 (486)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276CTR	Yesavg 38.7¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$200.13	67% 2646-1285 (3931)
NadmiCTR	Yesavg 4.4¢	$58.92	$660	+$601.08	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
pup1CTR	Yesavg 45¢	$450	$440	-$5	46% 1978-2361 (4339)
BI BikesAreTheBikes	Noavg 37¢	$224.47	$338.15	+$113.68	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
GL Gladius7CTR	Yesavg 57.7¢	$430.27	$327.95	-$98.59	48% 90-98 (188)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73ARB<$100	Noavg 57.5¢	$329.69	$319.4	-$8.81	39% 175-269 (444)
└ No leg	Noavg 57.5¢	$197.63	$188.98	-$13.72
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42.8¢	$127	$130.42	+$4.91
GUHHH	Noavg 55¢	$165	$165	+$1.5	78% 879-250 (1129)
Tenebrus7CTR	Yesavg 61.4¢	$170.87	$123.46	-$47.42	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
ME melganis<$100	Noavg 68¢	$68	$55	-$12.5	75% 1597-541 (2138)
tetraseCTR<$100	Yesavg 63.3¢	$12.75	$13.2	+$0.45	61% 839-544 (1383)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 87.8¢	$7.59	$4.78	-$2.81	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

schizohedgehogCTR

Yes

Invested

$18,875.59

Value

$13.6K

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

80%

48-12 (60)

eCashCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,337.29

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$247.11

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,519.31

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$200.13

Record

67%

2646-1285 (3931)

NadmiCTR

Yes

Invested

$58.92

Value

$660

PnL

+$601.08

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

pup1CTR

Yes

Invested

$450

Value

$440

PnL

-$5

Record

46%

1978-2361 (4339)

BikesAreTheBikes

Invested

$224.47

Value

$338.15

PnL

+$113.68

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

Gladius7CTR

Yes

Invested

$430.27

Value

$327.95

PnL

-$98.59

Record

48%

90-98 (188)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73ARB<$100

Invested

$329.69

Value

$319.4

PnL

-$8.81

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

Both legs:

No$197.6357.5¢-$13.72

Yes$12742.8¢+$4.91

GUHHH

Invested

$165

Value

$165

PnL

+$1.5

Record

78%

879-250 (1129)

Tenebrus7CTR

Yes

Invested

$170.87

Value

$123.46

PnL

-$47.42

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

melganis<$100

Invested

$68

Value

$55

PnL

-$12.5

Record

75%

1597-541 (2138)

tetraseCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.75

Value

$13.2

PnL

+$0.45

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$7.59

Value

$4.78

PnL

-$2.81

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 45%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

15 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 56% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.