Consensus PnL $301K · win rate 90% (538–59, n=597) · was PM monthly #569 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$301.3K
Record
538W / 59L
Win Rate
90.0%
of 597 settled
Batting Avg
63.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#237
Source
PM monthly #569 + pinned
Trades
23,149
Markets
911
Volume
$47.2M
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 7 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $244K · now 84¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $106K · now 96¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $26K · now 65¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Yes $9.4K · now 95¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (65% of 26)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes $8.9K · now 99¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (69% of 67)
- Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes $4.6K · now 78¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (70% of 37)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Yes $4.0K · now 99¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
Specialties
839 settled consensus markets · held side won 91% at an average entry of 91¢- Tech
+2 pts
side won 79% of 28 · avg entry 77¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 84% of 63 at an average 86¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 14% of 42)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 15% of 20)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 63% of 16)
- 70¢ and up: 91%(won 98% of 761)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.