Consensus PnL $84K · win rate 53% (126–111, n=237) · was PM monthly #721 · holds 17 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$83.9K
Record
126W / 111L
Win Rate
53.0%
of 237 settled
Batting Avg
48.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1711
Source
PM monthly #721
Record (90 d)
24/79 · 30%
Trades
3,053
Markets
541
Volume
$5.6M
Loading this trader’s full history
Large accounts take up to ~20 s
Loading positions and trades…
Top consensus positions
17 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 17 on the consensus side (41%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $81K · now 68¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (62% of 150)
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $20K · now 45¢with the consensus (73% of 67)
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Yes $19K · now 17¢ · in at 14¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Yes $12K · now 14¢ · in at 13¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $12K · now 19¢ · in at 15¢against the consensus (No)
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes $9.5K · now 12¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes $3.4K · now 18¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $3.2K · now 85¢ · in at 5¢with the consensus (72% of 63)
Specialties
301 settled consensus markets · held side won 56% at an average entry of 42¢- Geopolitics
+16 pts
side won 66% of 137 · avg entry 50¢
ROI −1%
- Finance
+19 pts
side won 61% of 31 · avg entry 42¢
ROI +18%
- Elections
+10 pts
side won 34% of 74 · avg entry 24¢
ROI +4%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 46%(won 15% of 137)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 80% of 35)
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 85% of 48)
- 70¢ and up: 27%(won 99% of 81)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.