Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 1.1¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 3

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$23.5K

Combined PnL

$6.3K

Smart Money Entry

0.7¢ → 1.1¢

+63% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$15.6K

Total Shares1,481,507

Combined PnL+$6.3K

No2 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares8,058

Combined PnL+$1.61

Yes — 78%No — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 86% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$8.8K	$15.0K	+$6.2K	43% 561-738 (1299)
balthazar	Noavg 98.9¢	$8.0K	$8.0K	+$1.61	61% 21355-13647 (35002)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$618.61	$400.26	+$53.64	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$103.68	$109.31	+$5.63	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
XAE12ArchangelCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$20	$17.79	-$1.32	66% 784-407 (1191)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 99¢	$17.3	$17.3	-$0	76% 11358-3527 (14885)
themagicofcinemaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$2.21	$2.45	+$0.37	66% 431-218 (649)
PL plumbisCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$1.01	$0.84	-$0.13	57% 51-39 (90)
SB sbimbgCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$1.53	$0.51	-$0.99	70% 3189-1369 (4558)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$8,846.06

Value

$15.0K

PnL

+$6.2K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

balthazar

Invested

$7,950.4

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$1.61

Record

61%

21355-13647 (35002)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$618.61

Value

$400.26

PnL

+$53.64

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$103.68

Value

$109.31

PnL

+$5.63

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

XAE12ArchangelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$17.79

PnL

-$1.32

Record

66%

784-407 (1191)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$17.3

Value

$17.3

PnL

-$0

Record

76%

11358-3527 (14885)

themagicofcinemaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.21

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.37

Record

66%

431-218 (649)

plumbisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.01

Value

$0.84

PnL

-$0.13

Record

57%

51-39 (90)

sbimbgCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.53

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$0.99

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 86% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.2%

1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4482.46

Max Loss

-$100.00

4582.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.