Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (72%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Buriram United win on 2026-11-04?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 28¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

-$362.42

Smart Money Entry

24¢ → 28.5¢

+19% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares10,968

Combined PnL-$383.51

No1 trader

Total Value$307.95

Total Shares387

Combined PnL+$21.1

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 26.5¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$108.06	51% 24195-22931 (47126)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26.5¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$145.42
└ No leg	Noavg 74.2¢	$1.0K	$989.45	-$37.36
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 24.6¢	$1.1K	$904.66	-$182.79	50% 27753-27615 (55368)
rayvanmechelenCTR	Yesavg 22.9¢	$558.22	$501.51	-$56.71	74% 2418-855 (3273)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 22.9¢	$450.59	$404.11	-$46.48	53% 60028-52398 (112426)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 74.1¢	$286.85	$307.95	+$21.1	50% 20688-20949 (41637)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 70¢	$263.3	$276.57	+$13.27	46% 1300-1520 (2820)
└ No leg	Noavg 70¢	$171.39	$194.65	+$23.26
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23¢	$91.91	$81.92	-$9.99
SE sentrioCTR	Yesavg 26.4¢	$246.56	$191.26	-$55.29	50% 25473-25171 (50644)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.9¢	$98.1	$87.98	-$10.12	51% 6272-6027 (12299)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$89.66	$83.55	-$6.11	47% 1327-1519 (2846)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Yesavg 27¢	$107.99	$81.99	-$26	51% 1781-1704 (3485)
HRTradingARB<$100	Yesavg 28.3¢	$69.83	$62.13	-$7.71	51% 7646-7363 (15009)
└ No leg	Noavg 74.5¢	$33.75	$35.99	+$2.24
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28.3¢	$36.09	$26.14	-$9.95

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,988.23

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$108.06

Record

51%

24195-22931 (47126)

Both legs:

Yes$1,961.4326.5¢+$145.42

No$1,026.8174.2¢-$37.36

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,087.46

Value

$904.66

PnL

-$182.79

Record

50%

27753-27615 (55368)

rayvanmechelenCTR

Yes

Invested

$558.22

Value

$501.51

PnL

-$56.71

Record

74%

2418-855 (3273)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$450.59

Value

$404.11

PnL

-$46.48

Record

53%

60028-52398 (112426)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$286.85

Value

$307.95

PnL

+$21.1

Record

50%

20688-20949 (41637)

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$263.3

Value

$276.57

PnL

+$13.27

Record

46%

1300-1520 (2820)

Both legs:

Invested

$246.56

Value

$191.26

PnL

-$55.29

Record

50%

25473-25171 (50644)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.1

Value

$87.98

PnL

-$10.12

Record

51%

6272-6027 (12299)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.66

Value

$83.55

PnL

-$6.11

Record

47%

1327-1519 (2846)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Yes

Invested

$107.99

Value

$81.99

PnL

-$26

Record

51%

1781-1704 (3485)

HRTradingARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.83

Value

$62.13

PnL

-$7.71

Record

51%

7646-7363 (15009)

Both legs:

No$33.7574.5¢+$2.24

Yes$36.0928.3¢-$9.95

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.