AI bubble burst in 2026?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 90¢ · $11K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
🔬
Research candidate
No
9
No 78%
$10.6K
$56.25
89.2¢ → 90.5¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 90%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xdc3E831cad | Noavg 90.1¢ | $3.8K | $3.8K | +$15.66 | 49% 1830-1896 (3726) |
LU LucasMeow | Noavg 90.4¢ | $3.6K | $3.6K | +$2.6 | 96% 160-7 (167) |
SB sbimbg | Noavg 90¢ | $900 | $903 | +$4.5 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
 Talophex | Noavg 91.2¢ | $911.37 | $902.65 | -$7.22 | 91% 929-95 (1024) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 86¢ | $535.62 | $567.17 | +$28.84 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
 TheKinginYellow | Noavg 76.2¢ | $498.54 | $541.99 | +$43.45 | 68% 830-398 (1228) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $28.3 | $80.27 | +$51.97 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
 zxdfbdfgngcxv<$100 | Noavg 74.8¢ | $69.16 | $70.61 | +$1.45 | 82% 1758-394 (2152) |
MA MaxVisionCTR | Yesavg 23.1¢ | $145.01 | $60.96 | -$84.99 | 37% 42-73 (115) |
0xdc3E831cadInvested
$3,803.71
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$15.66
Record
49%
1830-1896 (3726)
Invested
$3,615.45
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$2.6
Record
96%
160-7 (167)
Invested
$900
Value
$903
PnL
+$4.5
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
TalophexInvested
$911.37
Value
$902.65
PnL
-$7.22
Record
91%
929-95 (1024)
Invested
$535.62
Value
$567.17
PnL
+$28.84
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
TheKinginYellowInvested
$498.54
Value
$541.99
PnL
+$43.45
Record
68%
830-398 (1228)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$28.3
Value
$80.27
PnL
+$51.97
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
zxdfbdfgngcxv<$100Invested
$69.16
Value
$70.61
PnL
+$1.45
Record
82%
1758-394 (2152)
Invested
$145.01
Value
$60.96
PnL
-$84.99
Record
37%
42-73 (115)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.