Knoxville: Ozan Baris vs Oliver Tarvet

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Oliver Tarvet (55%) · Oliver Tarvet at 83¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 17

Ozan Baris18¢Oliver Tarvet82¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oliver Tarvet

Consensus Traders

Oliver Tarvet 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$7.35

Smart Money Entry

82.9¢ → 82.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOliver Tarvet at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oliver Tarvet

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ozan Baris18%

Oliver Tarvet83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oliver Tarvet6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,699

Combined PnL-$8.55

Ozan Baris5 traders

Total Value$316.89

Total Shares1,760

Combined PnL+$15.91

Oliver Tarvet — 55%Ozan Baris — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Oliver Tarvetavg 83¢	$707.18	$702.95	-$4.23	50% 1414-1418 (2832)
RN1	Oliver Tarvetavg 83¢	$438.83	$436.19	-$2.64	58% 3762-2719 (6481)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Ozan Barisavg 17¢	$171.42	$186.55	+$15.13	1% 3-200 (203)
SE sentrio	Oliver Tarvetavg 83¢	$165.15	$162.17	-$2.98	31% 171-389 (560)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Ozan Barisavg 17¢	$91.33	$94.02	+$2.69	25% 219-662 (881)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Ozan Barisavg 21.7¢	$59.33	$60.58	+$1.25	36% 354-629 (983)
└ Oliver Tarvet leg	Oliver Tarvetavg 72¢	$28.8	$31.8	+$3
└ Ozan Baris leg	Ozan Barisavg 21.7¢	$30.53	$28.78	-$1.75
PA Pan9X<$100	Oliver Tarvetavg 83¢	$58.05	$57	-$1.05	49% 428-453 (881)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Oliver Tarvetavg 79¢	$35.09	$37.53	+$2.44	24% 100-316 (416)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Ozan Barisavg 17¢	$22.2	$21.55	-$0.65	25% 220-643 (863)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Ozan Barisavg 22¢	$8.14	$7.59	-$0.56	25% 219-662 (881)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Ozan Barisavg 17¢	$7.89	$7.19	-$0.7	25% 221-650 (871)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Oliver Tarvetavg 83¢	$4.96	$4.87	-$0.09	56% 3802-2968 (6770)

Flaznorp

Oliver Tarvet

Invested

$707.18

Value

$702.95

PnL

-$4.23

Record

50%

1414-1418 (2832)

RN1

Oliver Tarvet

Invested

$438.83

Value

$436.19

PnL

-$2.64

Record

58%

3762-2719 (6481)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Ozan Baris

Invested

$171.42

Value

$186.55

PnL

+$15.13

Record

3-200 (203)

sentrio

Oliver Tarvet

Invested

$165.15

Value

$162.17

PnL

-$2.98

Record

31%

171-389 (560)

VenusianCTR<$100

Ozan Baris

Invested

$91.33

Value

$94.02

PnL

+$2.69

Record

25%

219-662 (881)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Ozan Baris

Invested

$59.33

Value

$60.58

PnL

+$1.25

Record

36%

354-629 (983)

Both legs:

Oliver Tarvet$28.872¢+$3

Ozan Baris$30.5321.7¢-$1.75

Pan9X<$100

Oliver Tarvet

Invested

$58.05

Value

$57

PnL

-$1.05

Record

49%

428-453 (881)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Oliver Tarvet

Invested

$35.09

Value

$37.53

PnL

+$2.44

Record

24%

100-316 (416)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Ozan Baris

Invested

$22.2

Value

$21.55

PnL

-$0.65

Record

25%

220-643 (863)

LimousinCTR<$100

Ozan Baris

Invested

$8.14

Value

$7.59

PnL

-$0.56

Record

25%

219-662 (881)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Ozan Baris

Invested

$7.89

Value

$7.19

PnL

-$0.7

Record

25%

221-650 (871)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Oliver Tarvet

Invested

$4.96

Value

$4.87

PnL

-$0.09

Record

56%

3802-2968 (6770)

Research grade

NeutralOliver Tarvet at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Oliver Tarvet

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oliver Tarvet wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.