Monastir: John Echeverria vs Aziz Ouakaa

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold John Echeverria (67%) · John Echeverria at 82¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 17

John Echeverria82¢Aziz Ouakaa18¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

John Echeverria

Consensus Traders

John Echeverria 67%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

-$228.21

Smart Money Entry

68.4¢ → 82¢

+20% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralJohn Echeverria at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

John Echeverria

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

John Echeverria82%

Aziz Ouakaa18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

John Echeverria8 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares6,213

Combined PnL+$110.79

Aziz Ouakaa4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares6,863

Combined PnL-$338.99

John Echeverria — 67%Aziz Ouakaa — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on John Echeverria. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Aziz Ouakaa) and the top 1000 (10 on John Echeverria) disagree here.

sharpJohn Echeverria 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJohn Echeverria 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedAziz Ouakaa 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000John Echeverria 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GL glennyorkshire	John Echeverriaavg 73¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$79.34	48% 29-32 (61)
65 6512395314597884	John Echeverriaavg 64¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$120	51% 3160-3058 (6218)
RN1CTR	Aziz Ouakaaavg 27.5¢	$928.28	$1.0K	+$82.66	58% 3751-2706 (6457)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Aziz Ouakaaavg 36¢	$1.1K	$644.74	-$434.83	24% 205-639 (844)
38 38791873984189	John Echeverriaavg 64¢	$512	$560	+$48	47% 781-864 (1645)
TH thestingsnake	John Echeverriaavg 71¢	$321.84	$295.65	-$3.03	17% 66-333 (399)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Aziz Ouakaaavg 27¢	$148.98	$162.15	+$13.17	50% 1390-1407 (2797)
TH thirdt1me	John Echeverriaavg 64¢	$143.77	$156.31	+$12.54	35% 63-115 (178)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	John Echeverriaavg 70.1¢	$55.3	$61.59	+$6.3	56% 3788-2950 (6738)
BA babybells<$100	John Echeverriaavg 64.6¢	$45.86	$49.7	+$3.84	16% 70-361 (431)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	John Echeverriaavg 71.8¢	$26.57	$29.05	+$2.48	12% 63-460 (523)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Aziz Ouakaaavg 29¢	$14.5	$14.5	-$0	15% 97-565 (662)

glennyorkshire

John Echeverria

Invested

$1,946.01

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$79.34

Record

48%

29-32 (61)

6512395314597884

John Echeverria

Invested

$1,280

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$120

Record

51%

3160-3058 (6218)

RN1CTR

Aziz Ouakaa

Invested

$928.28

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$82.66

Record

58%

3751-2706 (6457)

LightParadoxCTR

Aziz Ouakaa

Invested

$1,079.57

Value

$644.74

PnL

-$434.83

Record

24%

205-639 (844)

38791873984189

John Echeverria

Invested

$512

Value

$560

PnL

+$48

Record

47%

781-864 (1645)

thestingsnake

John Echeverria

Invested

$321.84

Value

$295.65

PnL

-$3.03

Record

17%

66-333 (399)

FlaznorpCTR

Aziz Ouakaa

Invested

$148.98

Value

$162.15

PnL

+$13.17

Record

50%

1390-1407 (2797)

thirdt1me

John Echeverria

Invested

$143.77

Value

$156.31

PnL

+$12.54

Record

35%

63-115 (178)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

John Echeverria

Invested

$55.3

Value

$61.59

PnL

+$6.3

Record

56%

3788-2950 (6738)

babybells<$100

John Echeverria

Invested

$45.86

Value

$49.7

PnL

+$3.84

Record

16%

70-361 (431)

BillBenter2026<$100

John Echeverria

Invested

$26.57

Value

$29.05

PnL

+$2.48

Record

12%

63-460 (523)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Aziz Ouakaa

Invested

$14.5

Value

$14.5

PnL

-$0

Record

15%

97-565 (662)

Research grade

NeutralJohn Echeverria at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

John Echeverria

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on John Echeverria. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Aziz Ouakaa) and the top 1000 (10 on John Echeverria) disagree here.

sharpJohn Echeverria 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJohn Echeverria 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedAziz Ouakaa 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000John Echeverria 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that John Echeverria wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.