Knoxville: Andres Martin vs Jordan Lee

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Andres Martin (58%) · Andres Martin at 93¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 15

Andres Martin93¢Jordan Lee7¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Andres Martin

Consensus Traders

Andres Martin 58%

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

-$51.63

Smart Money Entry

77.2¢ → 92.5¢

+20% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralAndres Martin at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Andres Martin

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Andres Martin93%

Jordan Lee8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Andres Martin7 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares5,997

Combined PnL+$676.32

Jordan Lee5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares6,068

Combined PnL-$727.95

Andres Martin — 58%Jordan Lee — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Andres Martinavg 69¢	$2.4K	$3.1K	+$665.03	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
FL Flaznorp	Andres Martinavg 86.6¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$7.86	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
LI LimousinCTR	Jordan Leeavg 26.5¢	$1.7K	$949.33	-$710.21	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Jordan Leeavg 34.4¢	$90.81	$73.16	-$17.66	54% 10222-8700 (18922)
RN1<$100	Andres Martinavg 62¢	$13.82	$19.39	+$5.57	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
MA MadridTime<$100	Andres Martinavg 88.5¢	$13.76	$10.37	-$3.39	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Andres Martinavg 60¢	$7.51	$7.47	-$0.05	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Andres Martinavg 79¢	$7.9	$4.6	+$1.2	60% 4594-3102 (7696)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Andres Martinavg 85¢	$4.25	$4.35	+$0.1	57% 20229-15050 (35279)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Jordan Leeavg 15¢	$2.27	$2.73	+$0.45	53% 6777-5930 (12707)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Jordan Leeavg 28¢	$5	$0.93	-$0.48	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	Jordan Leeavg 19¢	$4	$0.7	-$0.06	46% 33351-38883 (72234)

LightParadox

Andres Martin

Invested

$2,446.23

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$665.03

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

Flaznorp

Andres Martin

Invested

$2,432.48

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$7.86

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

LimousinCTR

Jordan Lee

Invested

$1,659.54

Value

$949.33

PnL

-$710.21

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Jordan Lee

Invested

$90.81

Value

$73.16

PnL

-$17.66

Record

54%

10222-8700 (18922)

RN1<$100

Andres Martin

Invested

$13.82

Value

$19.39

PnL

+$5.57

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

MadridTime<$100

Andres Martin

Invested

$13.76

Value

$10.37

PnL

-$3.39

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Andres Martin

Invested

$7.51

Value

$7.47

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

thestingsnake<$100

Andres Martin

Invested

$7.9

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$1.2

Record

60%

4594-3102 (7696)

BillBenter2026<$100

Andres Martin

Invested

$4.25

Value

$4.35

PnL

+$0.1

Record

57%

20229-15050 (35279)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Jordan Lee

Invested

$2.27

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.45

Record

53%

6777-5930 (12707)

VenusianCTR<$100

Jordan Lee

Invested

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$0.48

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

Jordan Lee

Invested

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$0.06

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

Research grade

NeutralAndres Martin at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Andres Martin

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Andres Martin wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.