Orleans: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Calvin Hemery

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Shintaro Mochizuki (44%) · Shintaro Mochizuki at 73¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 17

Shintaro Mochizuki73¢Calvin Hemery27¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Shintaro Mochizuki

Consensus Traders

Shintaro Mochizuki 44%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Entry

77.5¢ → 72.5¢

-6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralShintaro Mochizuki at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Shintaro Mochizuki

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Shintaro Mochizuki73%

Calvin Hemery28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Shintaro Mochizuki4 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares9,255

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Calvin Hemery5 traders

Total Value$664.25

Total Shares2,913

Combined PnL-$554.34

Shintaro Mochizuki — 44%Calvin Hemery — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 79¢	$8.4K	$6.9K	$-1.6K	54% 1625-1379 (3004)
LI LightParadox	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 75.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$25.06	25% 214-643 (857)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 38¢	$927.23	$760.04	-$142.44	48% 859-937 (1796)
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 38¢	$689.55	$481.17	-$208.39
└ Shintaro Mochizuki leg	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 56¢	$212.48	$278.87	+$65.95
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 48.5¢	$471.54	$521.04	+$66.69	18% 72-338 (410)
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 48.5¢	$331.73	$393.54	+$65.19
└ Shintaro Mochizuki leg	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 42¢	$126	$127.5	+$1.5
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 41.4¢	$614.82	$512.91	-$101.92	50% 1408-1410 (2818)
└ Shintaro Mochizuki leg	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 70.8¢	$299.99	$311.51	+$11.51
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 41.4¢	$314.83	$201.4	-$113.43
TH thirdt1meCTR	Calvin Hemeryavg 39.8¢	$1.0K	$443.23	-$549.16	37% 70-118 (188)
MA MadridTime	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 81¢	$343.62	$328.77	-$14.85	25% 215-633 (848)
LI Limousin	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 44.7¢	$134.87	$231.01	+$96.14	25% 213-654 (867)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 79.4¢	$121.15	$108.02	-$13.13	56% 3797-2958 (6755)
└ Shintaro Mochizuki leg	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 79.4¢	$83.45	$81.49	-$1.96
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 32¢	$37.69	$26.52	-$11.17
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 42¢	$95.39	$94.25	-$1.14	25% 213-654 (867)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 35.4¢	$138.1	$70	-$50.25	18% 78-366 (444)
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 35.4¢	$94.19	$49.18	-$57.27
└ Shintaro Mochizuki leg	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 54¢	$13.79	$20.82	+$7.02
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 44.5¢	$59.69	$60.3	+$0.61	52% 62-58 (120)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 44.4¢	$58.1	$53.6	-$4.5	35% 335-614 (949)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 42¢	$13.02	$12.87	-$0.15	48% 421-450 (871)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Shintaro Mochizuki

Invested

$8,444.96

Value

$6.9K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

54%

1625-1379 (3004)

LightParadox

Shintaro Mochizuki

Invested

$1,158.98

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$25.06

Record

25%

214-643 (857)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$927.23

Value

$760.04

PnL

-$142.44

Record

48%

859-937 (1796)

Both legs:

Calvin Hemery$689.5538¢-$208.39

Shintaro Mochizuki$212.4856¢+$65.95

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$471.54

Value

$521.04

PnL

+$66.69

Record

18%

72-338 (410)

Both legs:

Calvin Hemery$331.7348.5¢+$65.19

Shintaro Mochizuki$12642¢+$1.5

FlaznorpARB<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$614.82

Value

$512.91

PnL

-$101.92

Record

50%

1408-1410 (2818)

Both legs:

Shintaro Mochizuki$299.9970.8¢+$11.51

Calvin Hemery$314.8341.4¢-$113.43

thirdt1meCTR

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$1,034.4

Value

$443.23

PnL

-$549.16

Record

37%

70-118 (188)

MadridTime

Shintaro Mochizuki

Invested

$343.62

Value

$328.77

PnL

-$14.85

Record

25%

215-633 (848)

Limousin

Shintaro Mochizuki

Invested

$134.87

Value

$231.01

PnL

+$96.14

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Shintaro Mochizuki

Invested

$121.15

Value

$108.02

PnL

-$13.13

Record

56%

3797-2958 (6755)

Both legs:

Shintaro Mochizuki$83.4579.4¢-$1.96

Calvin Hemery$37.6932¢-$11.17

VenusianCTR<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$95.39

Value

$94.25

PnL

-$1.14

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

babybellsARB<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$138.1

Value

$70

PnL

-$50.25

Record

18%

78-366 (444)

Both legs:

Calvin Hemery$94.1935.4¢-$57.27

Shintaro Mochizuki$13.7954¢+$7.02

EulhunterCTR<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$59.69

Value

$60.3

PnL

+$0.61

Record

52%

62-58 (120)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$58.1

Value

$53.6

PnL

-$4.5

Record

35%

335-614 (949)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$13.02

Value

$12.87

PnL

-$0.15

Record

48%

421-450 (871)

Research grade

NeutralShintaro Mochizuki at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Shintaro Mochizuki

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Shintaro Mochizuki wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.