Lima: Franco Roncadelli vs Juan Sebastian Gomez

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Franco Roncadelli (25%) · Franco Roncadelli at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16

Franco Roncadelli99¢Juan Sebastian Gomez1¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Franco Roncadelli

Consensus Traders

Franco Roncadelli 25%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$74.59

Smart Money Entry

87.5¢ → 98.6¢

+13% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralFranco Roncadelli at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Franco Roncadelli

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Franco Roncadelli99%

Juan Sebastian Gomez1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Franco Roncadelli3 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,621

Combined PnL+$1.05

Juan Sebastian Gomez9 traders

Total Value$77.59

Total Shares1,487

Combined PnL-$75.63

Franco Roncadelli — 25%Juan Sebastian Gomez — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Franco Roncadelli. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJuan Sebastian Gomez 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpJuan Sebastian Gomez 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrJuan Sebastian Gomez 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedJuan Sebastian Gomez 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Juan Sebastian Gomez 80% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Franco Roncadelliavg 87.5¢	$2.6K	$2.4K	+$1.24	50% 24147-24262 (48409)
RN1CTR	Juan Sebastian Gomezavg 10¢	$296.17	$25.17	-$4.44	53% 72121-63608 (135729)
machinelearned<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 86¢	$40	$23.4	-$0.4	54% 10552-8960 (19512)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 97.5¢	$19.49	$19.7	+$0.21	52% 49669-46633 (96302)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Juan Sebastian Gomezavg 12.2¢	$24.89	$17.33	-$7.56	58% 237-173 (410)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Juan Sebastian Gomezavg 13¢	$137.46	$11.68	-$6.19	47% 2293-2595 (4888)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Juan Sebastian Gomezavg 8.9¢	$59.13	$9.65	-$49.48	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Juan Sebastian Gomezavg 12¢	$7.2	$5.1	-$2.1	49% 3741-3962 (7703)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Juan Sebastian Gomezavg 15¢	$65	$4.88	-$4.87	45% 2826-3461 (6287)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Juan Sebastian Gomezavg 8.3¢	$30	$2.25	-$0.25	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Juan Sebastian Gomezavg 10¢	$2.2	$1.43	-$0.77	53% 6836-5985 (12821)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Juan Sebastian Gomezavg 1¢	$0.07	$0.1	+$0.03	51% 6120-5875 (11995)

omnibus-076daa

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$2,581.11

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$1.24

Record

50%

24147-24262 (48409)

RN1CTR

Juan Sebastian Gomez

Invested

$296.17

Value

$25.17

PnL

-$4.44

Record

53%

72121-63608 (135729)

machinelearned<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$40

Value

$23.4

PnL

-$0.4

Record

54%

10552-8960 (19512)

Flaznorp<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$19.49

Value

$19.7

PnL

+$0.21

Record

52%

49669-46633 (96302)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Juan Sebastian Gomez

Invested

$24.89

Value

$17.33

PnL

-$7.56

Record

58%

237-173 (410)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Juan Sebastian Gomez

Invested

$137.46

Value

$11.68

PnL

-$6.19

Record

47%

2293-2595 (4888)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Juan Sebastian Gomez

Invested

$59.13

Value

$9.65

PnL

-$49.48

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

efntrickCTR<$100

Juan Sebastian Gomez

Invested

$7.2

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$2.1

Record

49%

3741-3962 (7703)

VenusianCTR<$100

Juan Sebastian Gomez

Invested

$65

Value

$4.88

PnL

-$4.87

Record

45%

2826-3461 (6287)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Juan Sebastian Gomez

Invested

$30

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.25

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Juan Sebastian Gomez

Invested

$2.2

Value

$1.43

PnL

-$0.77

Record

53%

6836-5985 (12821)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Juan Sebastian Gomez

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.1

PnL

+$0.03

Record

51%

6120-5875 (11995)

Research grade

NeutralFranco Roncadelli at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Franco Roncadelli

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Franco Roncadelli. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJuan Sebastian Gomez 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpJuan Sebastian Gomez 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrJuan Sebastian Gomez 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedJuan Sebastian Gomez 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Juan Sebastian Gomez 80% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Franco Roncadelli wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.