Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Lorenzo Sonego, while the market favors Quentin Halys (55%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Quentin Halys

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Lorenzo Sonego (55%) · Lorenzo Sonego at 46¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 17

Lorenzo Sonego46¢Quentin Halys54¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lorenzo Sonego

Consensus Traders

Lorenzo Sonego 55%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$7.95

Smart Money Entry

45.5¢ → 45.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Sonego at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Sonego

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Quentin Halys 55%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lorenzo Sonego46%

Quentin Halys55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lorenzo Sonego6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,069

Combined PnL+$14.58

Quentin Halys5 traders

Total Value$385.25

Total Shares713

Combined PnL-$6.63

Lorenzo Sonego — 55%Quentin Halys — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Lorenzo Sonego. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLorenzo Sonego 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedLorenzo Sonego 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lorenzo Sonego 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 46¢	$446.47	$436.76	-$9.71	54% 1570-1320 (2890)
HI hi774cCTR	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 46¢	$430.19	$420.83	-$9.35	7% 30-408 (438)
VeryLucky888CTR	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 45.3¢	$1.8K	$291.9	+$29.26	46% 178-207 (385)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3	Quentin Halysavg 55¢	$239.64	$235.28	-$4.36	1% 2-360 (362)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 44¢	$200.2	$204.75	+$4.55	50% 1318-1340 (2658)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1	Quentin Halysavg 55¢	$119.82	$117.64	-$2.18	1% 5-380 (385)
0X 0x0dae0fd966005cd3eb2e8e9b901f24fca34a72fe<$100	Quentin Halysavg 54¢	$24.67	$24.67	+$0	1% 1-119 (120)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 45¢	$22.53	$22.53	+$0	24% 190-616 (806)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 46¢	$7.82	$7.65	-$0.17	51% 105-102 (207)
TH TheMathGod<$100	Quentin Halysavg 55¢	$5	$4.95	-$0.05	— 1-3 (4)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Quentin Halysavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.7	-$0.05	20% 116-466 (582)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$446.47

Value

$436.76

PnL

-$9.71

Record

54%

1570-1320 (2890)

hi774cCTR

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$430.19

Value

$420.83

PnL

-$9.35

Record

30-408 (438)

VeryLucky888CTR

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$1,812.84

Value

$291.9

PnL

+$29.26

Record

46%

178-207 (385)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3

Quentin Halys

Invested

$239.64

Value

$235.28

PnL

-$4.36

Record

2-360 (362)

FlaznorpCTR

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$200.2

Value

$204.75

PnL

+$4.55

Record

50%

1318-1340 (2658)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1

Quentin Halys

Invested

$119.82

Value

$117.64

PnL

-$2.18

Record

5-380 (385)

0x0dae0fd966005cd3eb2e8e9b901f24fca34a72fe<$100

Quentin Halys

Invested

$24.67

Value

$24.67

PnL

+$0

Record

1-119 (120)

VenusianCTR<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$22.53

Value

$22.53

PnL

+$0

Record

24%

190-616 (806)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$7.82

Value

$7.65

PnL

-$0.17

Record

51%

105-102 (207)

TheMathGod<$100

Quentin Halys

Invested

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

—

1-3 (4)

ameisgoat11<$100

Quentin Halys

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$0.05

Record

20%

116-466 (582)

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Sonego at 46%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Sonego

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Quentin Halys 55%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Lorenzo Sonego. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLorenzo Sonego 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedLorenzo Sonego 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lorenzo Sonego 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lorenzo Sonego wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.