Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 99¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 5

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$24.5K

Combined PnL

$-6.9K

Smart Money Entry

85.2¢ → 98.8¢

+16% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$24.0K

Total Shares24,360

Combined PnL+$3.2K

No3 traders

Total Value$491.09

Total Shares33,643

Combined PnL$-10.2K

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FI firegold	Yesavg 84.1¢	$15.9K	$18.6K	+$2.7K	59% 323-224 (547)
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 95.9¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$74.16	89% 4653-547 (5200)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yesavg 77.5¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$354.62	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
AB ABC12345654321	Yesavg 98.3¢	$707.28	$708.42	+$1.87	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 32¢	$10.4K	$468.86	$-9.9K	47% 476-535 (1011)
SC SchruteBucks	Yesavg 59¢	$104.18	$173.84	+$69.84	56% 1865-1449 (3314)
LI lissartter<$100	Yesavg 64.9¢	$30.96	$39.38	+$8.42	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR	Noavg 23¢	$295.61	$22.09	-$273.52	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Noavg 12.5¢	$0.7	$0.14	-$0.55	50% 357-357 (714)

firegold

Yes

Invested

$15,894.23

Value

$18.6K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

59%

323-224 (547)

nonkenny90

Yes

Invested

$2,717.75

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$74.16

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes

Invested

$1,307.2

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$354.62

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

ABC12345654321

Yes

Invested

$707.28

Value

$708.42

PnL

+$1.87

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$10,358.28

Value

$468.86

PnL

$-9.9K

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

SchruteBucks

Yes

Invested

$104.18

Value

$173.84

PnL

+$69.84

Record

56%

1865-1449 (3314)

lissartter<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.96

Value

$39.38

PnL

+$8.42

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR

Invested

$295.61

Value

$22.09

PnL

-$273.52

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Invested

$0.7

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.55

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.