Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 2?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 98¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 2

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$21.6K

Combined PnL

$274.42

Smart Money Entry

96.7¢ → 98.1¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$21.6K

Total Shares21,953

Combined PnL+$275.15

No2 traders

Total Value$0.91

Total Shares51

Combined PnL-$0.73

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 97.1¢	$13.8K	$13.9K	+$135.1	66% 2458-1291 (3749)
MA Marioy	Yesavg 93¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	+$159	81% 250-58 (308)
0X 0xDB5	Yesavg 97.7¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$11.55	59% 2238-1571 (3809)
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394	Yesavg 98.1¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$30.88	59% 1064-740 (1804)
GO gobblewobble<$100	Yesavg 96.7¢	$22.29	$22.68	+$0.38	59% 877-611 (1488)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 98.4¢	$4.92	$4.92	-$0	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
19 196874353278CTR<$100	Noavg 3.2¢	$1.08	$0.82	-$0.26	45% 212-263 (475)
EA easypredictCTR<$100	Noavg 11.5¢	$0.58	$0.09	-$0.48	56% 270-208 (478)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$13,756.39

Value

$13.9K

PnL

+$135.1

Record

66%

2458-1291 (3749)

Marioy

Yes

Invested

$2,790

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$159

Record

81%

250-58 (308)

0xDB5

Yes

Invested

$2,721.51

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$11.55

Record

59%

2238-1571 (3809)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394

Yes

Invested

$2,078.72

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$30.88

Record

59%

1064-740 (1804)

gobblewobble<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.29

Value

$22.68

PnL

+$0.38

Record

59%

877-611 (1488)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.92

Value

$4.92

PnL

-$0

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

196874353278CTR<$100

Invested

$1.08

Value

$0.82

PnL

-$0.26

Record

45%

212-263 (475)

easypredictCTR<$100

Invested

$0.58

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.48

Record

56%

270-208 (478)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.2%

98.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.