Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bursaspor, while the market favors Karsiyaka (54%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bursaspor vs. Karsiyaka

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Bursaspor (67%) · Bursaspor at 46¢ · $836 held · ends Nov 8

Bursaspor46¢Karsiyaka54¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bursaspor

Consensus Traders

Bursaspor 67%

Total Value

$835.76

Combined PnL

$23.95

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 46¢

-11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidBursaspor at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bursaspor

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Karsiyaka 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bursaspor46%

Karsiyaka54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Karsiyaka3 traders

Total Value$338.22

Total Shares619

Combined PnL+$27.61

Bursaspor6 traders

Total Value$497.54

Total Shares868

Combined PnL-$3.66

Karsiyaka — 33%Bursaspor — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Bursaspor. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBursaspor 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBursaspor 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedBursaspor 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bursaspor 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Karsiyakaavg 52.6¢	$244.41	$253.18	+$8.77	50% 19450-19817 (39267)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Bursasporavg 47.4¢	$242.15	$232.41	-$9.75	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Bursasporavg 57.9¢	$158.54	$161.79	+$3.24	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Karsiyakaavg 43.2¢	$62.75	$80.59	+$17.84	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Bursasporavg 55.7¢	$73.75	$79.74	+$5.98	51% 6078-5799 (11877)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bursasporavg 60.2¢	$214.5	$12.61	-$3.91	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Bursasporavg 57¢	$8.55	$9.15	+$0.6	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
HRTrading<$100	Karsiyakaavg 38.3¢	$3.45	$4.46	+$1.01	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
poshposhCTR<$100	Bursasporavg 54¢	$1.68	$1.85	+$0.17	58% 10670-7656 (18326)

omnibus-076daa

Karsiyaka

Invested

$244.41

Value

$253.18

PnL

+$8.77

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

SnakeBallCTR

Bursaspor

Invested

$242.15

Value

$232.41

PnL

-$9.75

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Bursaspor

Invested

$158.54

Value

$161.79

PnL

+$3.24

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

UpTheBlues<$100

Karsiyaka

Invested

$62.75

Value

$80.59

PnL

+$17.84

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Bursaspor

Invested

$73.75

Value

$79.74

PnL

+$5.98

Record

51%

6078-5799 (11877)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bursaspor

Invested

$214.5

Value

$12.61

PnL

-$3.91

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Bursaspor

Invested

$8.55

Value

$9.15

PnL

+$0.6

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

HRTrading<$100

Karsiyaka

Invested

$3.45

Value

$4.46

PnL

+$1.01

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

poshposhCTR<$100

Bursaspor

Invested

$1.68

Value

$1.85

PnL

+$0.17

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

Research grade

AvoidBursaspor at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Bursaspor

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Karsiyaka 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Bursaspor. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBursaspor 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBursaspor 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedBursaspor 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bursaspor 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bursaspor wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.