LG Sakers vs. Seoul Knights

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold LG Sakers (78%) · LG Sakers at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 18

LG Sakers>99¢Seoul Knights<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

LG Sakers

Consensus Traders

LG Sakers 78%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 100¢

+99% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidLG Sakers at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LG Sakers

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

LG Sakers100%

Seoul Knights0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LG Sakers7 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares3,652

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Seoul Knights2 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares5,963

Combined PnL-$136.49

LG Sakers — 78%Seoul Knights — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on LG Sakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLG Sakers 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedLG Sakers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000LG Sakers 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	LG Sakersavg 47¢	$1.2K	$2.4K	+$1.2K	60% 435-296 (731)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Seoul Knightsavg 17¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$133.69	51% 1818-1779 (3597)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	LG Sakersavg 60.5¢	$709.22	$827.17	+$117.95	53% 1788-1590 (3378)
LI Limousin	LG Sakersavg 46¢	$93.07	$202.22	+$109.15	30% 369-862 (1231)
VeryLucky888	LG Sakersavg 47.3¢	$189	$97.7	+$55.7	52% 441-414 (855)
CI cigarettes<$100	LG Sakersavg 78¢	$52.8	$39.54	-$13.26	53% 5657-5082 (10739)
SE sentrio<$100	LG Sakersavg 46.2¢	$8.66	$18.31	+$9.65	37% 339-567 (906)
LI LightParadox<$100	LG Sakersavg 48¢	$2.4	$4.88	+$2.48	30% 368-861 (1229)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Seoul Knightsavg 56¢	$2.8	$0.01	-$2.8	41% 256-376 (632)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

LG Sakers

Invested

$1,156.29

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

60%

435-296 (731)

FlaznorpCTR

Seoul Knights

Invested

$1,917.89

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$133.69

Record

51%

1818-1779 (3597)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

LG Sakers

Invested

$709.22

Value

$827.17

PnL

+$117.95

Record

53%

1788-1590 (3378)

Limousin

LG Sakers

Invested

$93.07

Value

$202.22

PnL

+$109.15

Record

30%

369-862 (1231)

VeryLucky888

LG Sakers

Invested

$189

Value

$97.7

PnL

+$55.7

Record

52%

441-414 (855)

cigarettes<$100

LG Sakers

Invested

$52.8

Value

$39.54

PnL

-$13.26

Record

53%

5657-5082 (10739)

sentrio<$100

LG Sakers

Invested

$8.66

Value

$18.31

PnL

+$9.65

Record

37%

339-567 (906)

LightParadox<$100

LG Sakers

Invested

$2.4

Value

$4.88

PnL

+$2.48

Record

30%

368-861 (1229)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Seoul Knights

Invested

$2.8

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.8

Record

41%

256-376 (632)

Research grade

AvoidLG Sakers at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

LG Sakers

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on LG Sakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLG Sakers 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedLG Sakers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000LG Sakers 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LG Sakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.