Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-11-07?
2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 56¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
12
Yes 17%
$4.5K
-$0.99
56.6¢ → 56.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
49h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stickman22 | Yesavg 56.5¢ | $2.3K | $2.2K | -$40 | 51% 1738-1647 (3385) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 43¢ | $882.24 | $913.02 | +$30.78 | 51% 26319-24948 (51267) |
DV dv-pmCTR | Noavg 45.2¢ | $906.22 | $891.56 | +$10.02 | 48% 3352-3568 (6920) |
VI vibing123 | Yesavg 57.2¢ | $221.92 | $219.08 | -$2.84 | 52% 1651-1549 (3200) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Noavg 45.1¢ | $83.39 | $82.29 | +$1.17 | 53% 2617-2311 (4928) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $52.74 | $53.34 | +$0.6 | 53% 16941-15068 (32009) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $39.31 | $38.86 | -$0.45 | 64% 10093-5697 (15790) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $38.85 | $38.41 | -$0.44 | 64% 10069-5627 (15696) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 43.6¢ | $20.31 | $20.58 | +$0.27 | 58% 47054-33937 (80991) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $8.38 | $8.28 | -$0.1 | 49% 14849-15643 (30492) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $7.58 | $7.5 | -$0.09 | 50% 26091-25752 (51843) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $2.23 | +$0.08 | 50% 37964-37221 (75185) |
Stickman22Invested
$2,259.99
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$40
Record
51%
1738-1647 (3385)
Invested
$882.24
Value
$913.02
PnL
+$30.78
Record
51%
26319-24948 (51267)
Invested
$906.22
Value
$891.56
PnL
+$10.02
Record
48%
3352-3568 (6920)
Invested
$221.92
Value
$219.08
PnL
-$2.84
Record
52%
1651-1549 (3200)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$83.39
Value
$82.29
PnL
+$1.17
Record
53%
2617-2311 (4928)
Invested
$52.74
Value
$53.34
PnL
+$0.6
Record
53%
16941-15068 (32009)
Invested
$39.31
Value
$38.86
PnL
-$0.45
Record
64%
10093-5697 (15790)
Invested
$38.85
Value
$38.41
PnL
-$0.44
Record
64%
10069-5627 (15696)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$20.31
Value
$20.58
PnL
+$0.27
Record
58%
47054-33937 (80991)
Invested
$8.38
Value
$8.28
PnL
-$0.1
Record
49%
14849-15643 (30492)
Invested
$7.58
Value
$7.5
PnL
-$0.09
Record
50%
26091-25752 (51843)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.23
PnL
+$0.08
Record
50%
37964-37221 (75185)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.