Will FC Universitario win on 2026-11-09?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 81¢ · $877 held · ends Nov 10

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$877.28

Combined PnL

$32.82

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 80.5¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$496.9

Total Shares594

Combined PnL+$37.1

Yes7 traders

Total Value$73.85

Total Shares379

Combined PnL-$4.28

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 78% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 73.1¢	$323.46	$353.71	+$30.25	52% 271-247 (518)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 25.7¢	$331	$306.53	-$24.47	52% 50-46 (96)
└ No leg	Noavg 75.1¢	$160.54	$172.04	+$8.28
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.7¢	$177.53	$134.49	-$32.75
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 73.2¢	$76.77	$82.52	+$5.75	24% 59-185 (244)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$53.87	$56.64	+$1.02	21% 48-185 (233)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.3¢	$28.5	$27.32	-$1.18	9% 16-167 (183)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$21.47	$20.94	+$1.61	7% 15-191 (206)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.1¢	$11.84	$9.21	-$1.68	48% 42-46 (88)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$36.25	$7.07	-$3.08	36% 86-155 (241)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$4.97	$4.62	-$0.36	26% 102-296 (398)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 77¢	$3.95	$4.03	+$0.08	28% 104-265 (369)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$3.21	$3.3	+$0.08	26% 97-281 (378)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$1.08	$1.4	+$0.32	27% 100-275 (375)

Flaznorp

Invested

$323.46

Value

$353.71

PnL

+$30.25

Record

52%

271-247 (518)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$331

Value

$306.53

PnL

-$24.47

Record

52%

50-46 (96)

Both legs:

No$160.5475.1¢+$8.28

Yes$177.5325.7¢-$32.75

sentrio<$100

Invested

$76.77

Value

$82.52

PnL

+$5.75

Record

24%

59-185 (244)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$53.87

Value

$56.64

PnL

+$1.02

Record

21%

48-185 (233)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.5

Value

$27.32

PnL

-$1.18

Record

16-167 (183)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.47

Value

$20.94

PnL

+$1.61

Record

15-191 (206)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.84

Value

$9.21

PnL

-$1.68

Record

48%

42-46 (88)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.25

Value

$7.07

PnL

-$3.08

Record

36%

86-155 (241)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.97

Value

$4.62

PnL

-$0.36

Record

26%

102-296 (398)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$3.95

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$0.08

Record

28%

104-265 (369)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.21

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$0.08

Record

26%

97-281 (378)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.32

Record

27%

100-275 (375)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 78% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.