Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-11-04?
9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 55¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 90%
$4.3K
-$60.49
53.3¢ → 54.5¢
+2% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+1 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Mature
43h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 fraj0laCTR | Yesavg 47.6¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$67.67 | 64% 245-139 (384) |
HI hi774c | Noavg 52¢ | $904 | $921.38 | +$34.77 | 50% 4954-4883 (9837) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 55.2¢ | $702.95 | $674.43 | -$28.53 | 53% 1134-1025 (2159) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 53.2¢ | $470.31 | $468.4 | -$1.92 | 51% 24004-22756 (46760) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 52.1¢ | $408.23 | $138.98 | +$6.93 | 58% 45382-32888 (78270) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 54.2¢ | $133.44 | $130.38 | -$3.06 | 54% 1178-1008 (2186) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $33.08 | $32.58 | -$0.5 | 50% 20647-20936 (41583) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 54.8¢ | $12.88 | $12.46 | -$0.42 | 51% 7644-7356 (15000) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $3.47 | $3.47 | +$0 | 46% 1299-1520 (2819) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $3.34 | $3.22 | -$0.09 | 55% 1857-1547 (3404) |
fraj0laCTRInvested
$2,028.78
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$67.67
Record
64%
245-139 (384)
Invested
$904
Value
$921.38
PnL
+$34.77
Record
50%
4954-4883 (9837)
Invested
$702.95
Value
$674.43
PnL
-$28.53
Record
53%
1134-1025 (2159)
Invested
$470.31
Value
$468.4
PnL
-$1.92
Record
51%
24004-22756 (46760)
VeryLucky888Invested
$408.23
Value
$138.98
PnL
+$6.93
Record
58%
45382-32888 (78270)
Invested
$133.44
Value
$130.38
PnL
-$3.06
Record
54%
1178-1008 (2186)
Invested
$33.08
Value
$32.58
PnL
-$0.5
Record
50%
20647-20936 (41583)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$12.88
Value
$12.46
PnL
-$0.42
Record
51%
7644-7356 (15000)
Invested
$3.47
Value
$3.47
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
1299-1520 (2819)
Invested
$3.34
Value
$3.22
PnL
-$0.09
Record
55%
1857-1547 (3404)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.