Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-11-08?

1 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (7%) · Yes at 54¢ · $116K held · ends Nov 8

Yes54¢No46¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 7%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$115.6K

Combined PnL

-$99.57

Research grade

NeutralYes at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 14 top traders (7%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes54%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$68.5K

Total Shares127,995

Combined PnL-$455.24

No13 traders

Total Value$45.5K

Total Shares97,079

Combined PnL+$355.68

Yes — 7%No — 93%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hovistomaradona	Yesavg 53.9¢	$68.9K	$68.5K	-$455.24	56% 18-14 (32)
CO CornerGamingCTR	Noavg 46¢	$20.5K	$20.7K	+$223	47% 14-16 (30)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Noavg 46¢	$9.2K	$9.3K	+$100	53% 6334-5615 (11949)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 46.3¢	$7.8K	$7.8K	+$24.96	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 46.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$18.93	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
└ No leg	Noavg 46.5¢	$962.93	$963.6	+$0.67
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52¢	$633	$651.26	+$18.26
SE sentrioCTR	Noavg 46.3¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$4.55	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 47.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$21.16	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
FO forecastication4CTR	Noavg 46¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$14.02	50% 1423-1429 (2852)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 47.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$17.95	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
HI hi774cCTR	Noavg 46¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$11.69	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 46¢	$703.83	$698.49	+$8.08	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 46.4¢	$321.02	$322.08	+$0.06	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
DV dv-pmCTR	Noavg 48.2¢	$228.2	$227.04	+$7.1	48% 3364-3590 (6954)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Noavg 46.1¢	$162.9	$164.15	+$1.25	45% 3029-3730 (6759)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$9.2	$9.3	+$0.1	54% 10485-8797 (19282)

hovistomaradona

Yes

Invested

$68,932.71

Value

$68.5K

PnL

-$455.24

Record

56%

18-14 (32)

CornerGamingCTR

Invested

$20,516

Value

$20.7K

PnL

+$223

Record

47%

14-16 (30)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Invested

$9,200

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$100

Record

53%

6334-5615 (11949)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$7,782.45

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$24.96

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$1,595.93

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$18.93

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Both legs:

No$962.9346.5¢+$0.67

Yes$63352¢+$18.26

sentrioCTR

Invested

$1,360.1

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$4.55

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$1,340.43

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$21.16

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

forecastication4CTR

Invested

$1,289.84

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$14.02

Record

50%

1423-1429 (2852)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$1,187.28

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$17.95

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

hi774cCTR

Invested

$1,075.08

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$11.69

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$703.83

Value

$698.49

PnL

+$8.08

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$321.02

Value

$322.08

PnL

+$0.06

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

dv-pmCTR

Invested

$228.2

Value

$227.04

PnL

+$7.1

Record

48%

3364-3590 (6954)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Invested

$162.9

Value

$164.15

PnL

+$1.25

Record

45%

3029-3730 (6759)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 14 top traders (7%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.