Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold East Tennessee State Buccaneers, while the market favors Campbell Fighting Camels (74%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: East Tennessee State Buccaneers (-5.5)

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold East Tennessee State Buccaneers (90%) · East Tennessee State Buccaneers at 27¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 12

East Tennessee State Buccaneers27¢Campbell Fighting Camels73¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Consensus Traders

East Tennessee State Buccaneers 90%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$133.75

Smart Money Entry

45.5¢ → 26.5¢

-42% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidEast Tennessee State Buccaneers at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Campbell Fighting Camels 74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

East Tennessee State Buccaneers27%

Campbell Fighting Camels74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

East Tennessee State Buccaneers9 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares12,889

Combined PnL+$133.53

Campbell Fighting Camels1 trader

Total Value$8.02

Total Shares15

Combined PnL+$0.22

East Tennessee State Buccaneers — 90%Campbell Fighting Camels — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774cCTR	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 46¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$73.55	14% 77-472 (549)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 46¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$30.16	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
0xheavy888CTR	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 45¢	$299.7	$303.03	+$3.33	55% 205-165 (370)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 40.7¢	$221.09	$230.9	+$15.18	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
└ East Tennessee State Buccaneers leg	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 40.7¢	$150.86	$161.19	+$10.76
└ Campbell Fighting Camels leg	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 52.9¢	$65.29	$69.71	+$4.42
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 40¢	$200	$215	+$15	55% 718-583 (1301)
RN1CTR	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 40.9¢	$188.96	$200.78	+$11.82	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
FL FlaznorpCTR	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 46¢	$141.29	$139.68	-$1.61	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 40.9¢	$49.42	$52.15	+$2.73	49% 684-724 (1408)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 46¢	$92	$45.5	-$1.45	52% 490-447 (937)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 52¢	$7.8	$8.02	+$0.22	33% 317-631 (948)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 47¢	$7.05	$7.05	+$0	39% 382-610 (992)

hi774cCTR

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Invested

$2,701.9

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$73.55

Record

14%

77-472 (549)

HomeRunHazardCTR

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Invested

$2,693.81

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$30.16

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

0xheavy888CTR

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Invested

$299.7

Value

$303.03

PnL

+$3.33

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

38791873984189ARB<$100

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Invested

$221.09

Value

$230.9

PnL

+$15.18

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

Both legs:

East Tennessee State Buccaneers$150.8640.7¢+$10.76

Campbell Fighting Camels$65.2952.9¢+$4.42

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Invested

$200

Value

$215

PnL

+$15

Record

55%

718-583 (1301)

RN1CTR

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Invested

$188.96

Value

$200.78

PnL

+$11.82

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

FlaznorpCTR

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Invested

$141.29

Value

$139.68

PnL

-$1.61

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

Pan9XCTR<$100

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Invested

$49.42

Value

$52.15

PnL

+$2.73

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Invested

$92

Value

$45.5

PnL

-$1.45

Record

52%

490-447 (937)

ameisgoat11<$100

Campbell Fighting Camels

Invested

$7.8

Value

$8.02

PnL

+$0.22

Record

33%

317-631 (948)

sentrioCTR<$100

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Invested

$7.05

Value

$7.05

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

382-610 (992)

Research grade

AvoidEast Tennessee State Buccaneers at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Campbell Fighting Camels 74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that East Tennessee State Buccaneers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.