Spread: Boston College Eagles (-26.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks (70%) · Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks at 81¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Boston College Eagles19¢Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks81¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks

Consensus Traders

Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks 70%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$104.65

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 81¢

+52% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidMaryland Eastern Shore Hawks at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Boston College Eagles19%

Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Boston College Eagles3 traders

Total Value$913.72

Total Shares1,556

Combined PnL+$165.81

Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks7 traders

Total Value$629.54

Total Shares1,670

Combined PnL-$270.47

Boston College Eagles — 30%Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMaryland Eastern Shore Hawks 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Boston College Eagles 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Boston College Eaglesavg 46¢	$449.67	$758.85	+$309.18	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
GL glennyorkshire	Maryland Eastern Shore Hawksavg 54¢	$482.09	$223.22	-$258.88	47% 35-40 (75)
38 38791873984189	Maryland Eastern Shore Hawksavg 52.3¢	$193.66	$188.76	-$4.9	48% 949-1019 (1968)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Boston College Eaglesavg 47.8¢	$288.24	$138.77	-$149.47	25% 114-349 (463)
RN1	Maryland Eastern Shore Hawksavg 52¢	$127.4	$124.95	-$2.45	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
PA Pan9X<$100	Maryland Eastern Shore Hawksavg 52.4¢	$75.14	$64.67	-$3.75	49% 444-470 (914)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Boston College Eaglesavg 50¢	$10	$16.1	+$6.1	26% 181-519 (700)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Maryland Eastern Shore Hawksavg 51¢	$11.42	$11.42	-$0	56% 488-383 (871)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Maryland Eastern Shore Hawksavg 52¢	$8.69	$8.53	-$0.17	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
dips.<$100	Maryland Eastern Shore Hawksavg 53¢	$8.32	$8	-$0.32	—

HomeRunHazardCTR

Boston College Eagles

Invested

$449.67

Value

$758.85

PnL

+$309.18

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

glennyorkshire

Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks

Invested

$482.09

Value

$223.22

PnL

-$258.88

Record

47%

35-40 (75)

38791873984189

Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks

Invested

$193.66

Value

$188.76

PnL

-$4.9

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Boston College Eagles

Invested

$288.24

Value

$138.77

PnL

-$149.47

Record

25%

114-349 (463)

RN1

Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks

Invested

$127.4

Value

$124.95

PnL

-$2.45

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

Pan9X<$100

Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks

Invested

$75.14

Value

$64.67

PnL

-$3.75

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Boston College Eagles

Invested

$10

Value

$16.1

PnL

+$6.1

Record

26%

181-519 (700)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks

Invested

$11.42

Value

$11.42

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks

Invested

$8.69

Value

$8.53

PnL

-$0.17

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

dips.<$100

Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks

Invested

$8.32

Value

PnL

-$0.32

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidMaryland Eastern Shore Hawks at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMaryland Eastern Shore Hawks 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Boston College Eagles 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.