South Alabama Jaguars vs. UCF Knights

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold UCF Knights (27%) · UCF Knights at 90¢ · $977 held · ended Nov 11

South Alabama Jaguars10¢UCF Knights90¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

UCF Knights

Consensus Traders

UCF Knights 27%

Total Value

$976.56

Combined PnL

$0.51

Smart Money Entry

92.8¢ → 90¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUCF Knights at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UCF Knights

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

South Alabama Jaguars10%

UCF Knights90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UCF Knights3 traders

Total Value$630.53

Total Shares631

Combined PnL-$6.13

South Alabama Jaguars8 traders

Total Value$346.03

Total Shares3,746

Combined PnL+$6.64

UCF Knights — 27%South Alabama Jaguars — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on UCF Knights. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSouth Alabama Jaguars 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000South Alabama Jaguars 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	UCF Knightsavg 92.9¢	$555.18	$549.89	-$5.29	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
LI LimousinCTR	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 10¢	$126.87	$120.53	-$6.34	26% 234-672 (906)
VE VenusianCTR	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 7.7¢	$104.41	$115.49	+$11.08	25% 228-679 (907)
nigiri99CTR<$100	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 10¢	$81.6	$81.6	+$0	52% 128-119 (247)
FO forecastication4<$100	UCF Knightsavg 93¢	$62.31	$61.31	-$1.01	11% 24-189 (213)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 9¢	$22.5	$23.75	+$1.25	56% 488-383 (871)
PA Pan9X<$100	UCF Knightsavg 90¢	$19.17	$19.34	+$0.17	49% 440-464 (904)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 7¢	$1.51	$1.83	+$0.32	43% 79-105 (184)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 9¢	$1.26	$1.33	+$0.07	50% 1433-1435 (2868)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 7¢	$1.08	$1.31	+$0.23	8% 37-422 (459)
RN1CTR<$100	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 8¢	$0.17	$0.2	+$0.02	58% 3771-2731 (6502)

HomeRunHazard

UCF Knights

Invested

$555.18

Value

$549.89

PnL

-$5.29

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

LimousinCTR

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$126.87

Value

$120.53

PnL

-$6.34

Record

26%

234-672 (906)

VenusianCTR

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$104.41

Value

$115.49

PnL

+$11.08

Record

25%

228-679 (907)

nigiri99CTR<$100

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$81.6

Value

$81.6

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

128-119 (247)

forecastication4<$100

UCF Knights

Invested

$62.31

Value

$61.31

PnL

-$1.01

Record

11%

24-189 (213)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$22.5

Value

$23.75

PnL

+$1.25

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

Pan9X<$100

UCF Knights

Invested

$19.17

Value

$19.34

PnL

+$0.17

Record

49%

440-464 (904)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$1.51

Value

$1.83

PnL

+$0.32

Record

43%

79-105 (184)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$1.26

Value

$1.33

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

1433-1435 (2868)

hi774cCTR<$100

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.31

PnL

+$0.23

Record

37-422 (459)

RN1CTR<$100

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.2

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

3771-2731 (6502)

Research grade

AvoidUCF Knights at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

UCF Knights

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on UCF Knights. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSouth Alabama Jaguars 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000South Alabama Jaguars 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UCF Knights wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.