Spread: Kansas Jayhawks (-4.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Kentucky Wildcats (64%) · Kentucky Wildcats at 53¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Kansas Jayhawks48¢Kentucky Wildcats52¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kentucky Wildcats

Consensus Traders

Kentucky Wildcats 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$28.22

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 52.5¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidKentucky Wildcats at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kentucky Wildcats

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Kansas Jayhawks48%

Kentucky Wildcats53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kentucky Wildcats7 traders

Total Value$700.39

Total Shares1,370

Combined PnL+$12.6

Kansas Jayhawks4 traders

Total Value$469.52

Total Shares885

Combined PnL+$15.62

Kentucky Wildcats — 64%Kansas Jayhawks — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Kentucky Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKentucky Wildcats 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedKentucky Wildcats 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kentucky Wildcats 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Kentucky Wildcatsavg 53¢	$259.7	$269.5	+$9.8	56% 502-393 (895)
OD Oddstorm	Kentucky Wildcatsavg 48¢	$246.72	$254.43	+$7.71	22% 28-100 (128)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Kansas Jayhawksavg 52¢	$211.78	$219.93	+$8.15	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Kentucky Wildcatsavg 50.6¢	$214.8	$199.3	+$4.26	48% 959-1032 (1991)
└ Kentucky Wildcats leg	Kentucky Wildcatsavg 50.6¢	$141.26	$149.27	+$8.01
└ Kansas Jayhawks leg	Kansas Jayhawksavg 51¢	$54.88	$50.04	-$3.74
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Kansas Jayhawksavg 51¢	$106.61	$112.93	+$6.32	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
RN1	Kentucky Wildcatsavg 47.6¢	$114.6	$110.73	-$3.87	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Kansas Jayhawksavg 51¢	$66.51	$70.43	+$3.91	8% 37-422 (459)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Kansas Jayhawksavg 50¢	$69	$66.24	-$2.76	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
PA Pan9X<$100	Kentucky Wildcatsavg 51.1¢	$41.4	$34.96	+$0.46	49% 446-472 (918)
0xheavy888<$100	Kentucky Wildcatsavg 50¢	$20	$19.2	-$0.8	55% 120-97 (217)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Kentucky Wildcatsavg 51¢	$11.27	$10.61	-$0.66	40% 240-361 (601)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Kentucky Wildcatsavg 50¢	$1	$0.96	-$0.04	26% 185-519 (704)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Kentucky Wildcats

Invested

$259.7

Value

$269.5

PnL

+$9.8

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

Oddstorm

Kentucky Wildcats

Invested

$246.72

Value

$254.43

PnL

+$7.71

Record

22%

28-100 (128)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Kansas Jayhawks

Invested

$211.78

Value

$219.93

PnL

+$8.15

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Kentucky Wildcats

Invested

$214.8

Value

$199.3

PnL

+$4.26

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Both legs:

Kentucky Wildcats$141.2650.6¢+$8.01

Kansas Jayhawks$54.8851¢-$3.74

HomeRunHazardCTR

Kansas Jayhawks

Invested

$106.61

Value

$112.93

PnL

+$6.32

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

RN1

Kentucky Wildcats

Invested

$114.6

Value

$110.73

PnL

-$3.87

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

hi774cCTR<$100

Kansas Jayhawks

Invested

$66.51

Value

$70.43

PnL

+$3.91

Record

37-422 (459)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Kansas Jayhawks

Invested

$69

Value

$66.24

PnL

-$2.76

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

Pan9X<$100

Kentucky Wildcats

Invested

$41.4

Value

$34.96

PnL

+$0.46

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

0xheavy888<$100

Kentucky Wildcats

Invested

$20

Value

$19.2

PnL

-$0.8

Record

55%

120-97 (217)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Kentucky Wildcats

Invested

$11.27

Value

$10.61

PnL

-$0.66

Record

40%

240-361 (601)

ameisgoat11<$100

Kentucky Wildcats

Invested

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$0.04

Record

26%

185-519 (704)

Research grade

AvoidKentucky Wildcats at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Kentucky Wildcats

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Kentucky Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKentucky Wildcats 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedKentucky Wildcats 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kentucky Wildcats 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kentucky Wildcats wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.