Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-10-28?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 10

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$109.02

Smart Money Entry

91.8¢ → 100¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,486

Combined PnL-$77.19

No3 traders

Total Value$0.2

Total Shares403

Combined PnL-$31.84

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 91.5¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$105.02	50% 1414-1418 (2832)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 91.7¢	$115.97	$126.08	+$10.11	47% 148-167 (315)
SE sentrio	Yesavg 92.1¢	$102.97	$110.7	+$7.73	31% 171-389 (560)
RN1	Yesavg 94.9¢	$98.97	$103.72	+$4.76	58% 3762-2719 (6481)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Yesavg 89¢	$34.5	$38.74	+$4.24	3% 11-307 (318)
LI Limousin<$100	Yesavg 94.4¢	$16.98	$17.98	+$1	25% 219-662 (881)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 10.9¢	$23.68	$0.11	-$23.58	44% 79-102 (181)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Noavg 1.3¢	$1.62	$0.06	-$1.56	24% 100-316 (416)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$6.74	$0.03	-$6.7	36% 354-629 (983)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$1,194.66

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$105.02

Record

50%

1414-1418 (2832)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$115.97

Value

$126.08

PnL

+$10.11

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

sentrio

Yes

Invested

$102.97

Value

$110.7

PnL

+$7.73

Record

31%

171-389 (560)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$98.97

Value

$103.72

PnL

+$4.76

Record

58%

3762-2719 (6481)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.5

Value

$38.74

PnL

+$4.24

Record

11-307 (318)

Limousin<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.98

Value

$17.98

PnL

+$1

Record

25%

219-662 (881)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$23.68

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$23.58

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Invested

$1.62

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.56

Record

24%

100-316 (416)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$6.74

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.7

Record

36%

354-629 (983)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.