Will CD Pamplona vs. SD Eibar end in a draw?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 96¢ · $614 held · ended Nov 10

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$614.15

Combined PnL

$40.55

Smart Money Entry

81.8¢ → 96¢

+17% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$538.73

Total Shares601

Combined PnL+$43.5

Yes2 traders

Total Value$19.57

Total Shares67

Combined PnL-$2.95

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Noavg 82¢	$174.12	$170.82	+$18.66	25% 213-654 (867)
VE Venusian	Noavg 78.1¢	$123.64	$148.09	+$24.45	25% 213-654 (867)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 84¢	$99.96	$95.2	-$4.76	25% 215-633 (848)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 80.9¢	$57.35	$62.08	+$5.73	25% 214-643 (857)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 16.9¢	$107.36	$55.85	-$51.51	50% 1408-1410 (2818)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 16.9¢	$86.39	$33.31	-$53.09
└ No leg	Noavg 87¢	$20.97	$22.54	+$1.57
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Noavg 92¢	$21.96	$21.96	+$0	54% 1625-1379 (3004)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 80¢	$21.49	$21.49	+$0	60% 3442-2335 (5777)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.8¢	$22.05	$18.77	-$3.27	31% 170-383 (553)
RN1<$100	Noavg 92¢	$11.5	$11.75	+$0.25	58% 3757-2710 (6467)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 89¢	$8.17	$7.34	-$0.83	37% 191-330 (521)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$0.48	$0.8	+$0.32	49% 231-239 (470)

Limousin

Invested

$174.12

Value

$170.82

PnL

+$18.66

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

Venusian

Invested

$123.64

Value

$148.09

PnL

+$24.45

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$99.96

Value

$95.2

PnL

-$4.76

Record

25%

215-633 (848)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$57.35

Value

$62.08

PnL

+$5.73

Record

25%

214-643 (857)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$107.36

Value

$55.85

PnL

-$51.51

Record

50%

1408-1410 (2818)

Both legs:

Yes$86.3916.9¢-$53.09

No$20.9787¢+$1.57

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Invested

$21.96

Value

$21.96

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1625-1379 (3004)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$21.49

Value

$21.49

PnL

+$0

Record

60%

3442-2335 (5777)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.05

Value

$18.77

PnL

-$3.27

Record

31%

170-383 (553)

RN1<$100

Invested

$11.5

Value

$11.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

58%

3757-2710 (6467)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$8.17

Value

$7.34

PnL

-$0.83

Record

37%

191-330 (521)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.8

PnL

+$0.32

Record

49%

231-239 (470)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.