Will CF Trival Valderas win on 2026-10-28?
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 100%
$9.9K
-$15.6
95.3¢ → 94.9¢
+0% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 51%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox | Noavg 95.5¢ | $2.7K | $2.6K | -$3.63 | 24% 201-627 (828) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 94.7¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$5.98 | 24% 200-618 (818) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 95.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$4.98 | 44% 78-101 (179) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 95.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$3.46 | 24% 200-638 (838) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 95.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$6.65 | 50% 1378-1394 (2772) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 95.6¢ | $599.76 | $595.46 | -$4.29 | 24% 204-633 (837) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 94.9¢ | $299.03 | $300.56 | +$1.52 | 47% 147-166 (313) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $93.69 | $55.7 | +$0.53 | 48% 207-227 (434) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $49.85 | $49.51 | -$0.34 | 40% 3001-4411 (7412) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 94.9¢ | $41.13 | $40.84 | -$0.29 | 29% 154-375 (529) |
Invested
$2,653.35
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$3.63
Record
24%
201-627 (828)
Invested
$2,333.64
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$5.98
Record
24%
200-618 (818)
Invested
$1,389.21
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$4.98
Record
44%
78-101 (179)
Invested
$1,243.32
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$3.46
Record
24%
200-638 (838)
Invested
$1,229.83
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$6.65
Record
50%
1378-1394 (2772)
Invested
$599.76
Value
$595.46
PnL
-$4.29
Record
24%
204-633 (837)
Invested
$299.03
Value
$300.56
PnL
+$1.52
Record
47%
147-166 (313)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$93.69
Value
$55.7
PnL
+$0.53
Record
48%
207-227 (434)
Invested
$49.85
Value
$49.51
PnL
-$0.34
Record
40%
3001-4411 (7412)
Invested
$41.13
Value
$40.84
PnL
-$0.29
Record
29%
154-375 (529)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.