Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan: O/U 45.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 84¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 5

Over16¢Under84¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

62.7¢ → 84¢

+34% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over16%

Under84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares7,592

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Over4 traders

Total Value$139.01

Total Shares556

Combined PnL+$27.82

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Underavg 62.7¢	$4.3K	$5.3K	+$951.49	47% 1244-1422 (2666)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 69.3¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$125.34	53% 60181-52537 (112718)
└ Under leg	Underavg 69.3¢	$903.48	$1.0K	+$139.72
└ Over leg	Overavg 35.5¢	$606.43	$341.37	-$265.06
38 38791873984189	Underavg 62¢	$412.97	$461.66	+$48.69	48% 59434-63450 (122884)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Overavg 19.5¢	$97.31	$127.5	+$30.19	59% 31932-22560 (54492)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Underavg 66.5¢	$43.9	$44.88	+$0.98	56% 7920-6245 (14165)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Underavg 81¢	$34.83	$35.48	+$0.65	51% 4652-4485 (9137)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 52¢	$26.52	$34.68	+$8.16	54% 18039-15168 (33207)
3C 0x3ca9...424a<$100	Underavg 62¢	$25.98	$16.72	+$1.38	—
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 19.5¢	$8.37	$7.52	-$0.84	53% 11880-10404 (22284)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$3.62	$2.44	-$1.18	50% 36455-35915 (72370)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$1.9	$1.55	-$0.35	50% 8211-8248 (16459)

primm

Under

Invested

$4,337.83

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$951.49

Record

47%

1244-1422 (2666)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,509.91

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$125.34

Record

53%

60181-52537 (112718)

Both legs:

Under$903.4869.3¢+$139.72

Over$606.4335.5¢-$265.06

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$412.97

Value

$461.66

PnL

+$48.69

Record

48%

59434-63450 (122884)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Over

Invested

$97.31

Value

$127.5

PnL

+$30.19

Record

59%

31932-22560 (54492)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Under

Invested

$43.9

Value

$44.88

PnL

+$0.98

Record

56%

7920-6245 (14165)

6512395314597884<$100

Under

Invested

$34.83

Value

$35.48

PnL

+$0.65

Record

51%

4652-4485 (9137)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$26.52

Value

$34.68

PnL

+$8.16

Record

54%

18039-15168 (33207)

0x3ca9...424a<$100

Under

Invested

$25.98

Value

$16.72

PnL

+$1.38

Record

—

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.37

Value

$7.52

PnL

-$0.84

Record

53%

11880-10404 (22284)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.62

Value

$2.44

PnL

-$1.18

Record

50%

36455-35915 (72370)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.55

PnL

-$0.35

Record

50%

8211-8248 (16459)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 84%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.