Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (86%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Colorado vs. Arizona State: O/U 49.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 14¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 8

Over14¢Under86¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

-$413.64

Smart Money Entry

37.9¢ → 14¢

-63% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Under 86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,712

Combined PnL-$122.76

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares4,510

Combined PnL-$290.88

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 57.1¢	$9.3K	$9.6K	+$246.04	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.1¢	$6.3K	$7.0K	+$707.86
└ Over leg	Overavg 43¢	$3.1K	$2.6K	-$461.82
NO Notradecopy	Underavg 57¢	$1,000	$912.28	-$87.72	48% 4060-4345 (8405)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 42.6¢	$1.1K	$582.93	-$200.2	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 33¢	$510.84	$565.02	+$54.18	47% 1317-1506 (2823)
RN1	Underavg 67¢	$527.18	$499.74	-$27.43	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 67¢	$226.06	$227.29	+$1.23	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
└ Under leg	Underavg 67¢	$158.06	$179.29	+$21.23
└ Over leg	Overavg 34¢	$68	$48	-$20
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 46¢	$207	$216	+$9	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
VI vibing123CTR	Overavg 33.8¢	$214.68	$88.82	-$125.86	52% 1674-1564 (3238)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$95.2	$67.2	-$28	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
HI hi774c<$100	Underavg 57¢	$68.4	$62.4	-$6	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 67¢	$74.54	$50.83	-$1.61	54% 10485-8797 (19282)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$9,344.09

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$246.04

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

Both legs:

Under$6,288.9757.1¢+$707.86

Over$3,055.1243¢-$461.82

Notradecopy

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$912.28

PnL

-$87.72

Record

48%

4060-4345 (8405)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$1,140.89

Value

$582.93

PnL

-$200.2

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$510.84

Value

$565.02

PnL

+$54.18

Record

47%

1317-1506 (2823)

RN1

Under

Invested

$527.18

Value

$499.74

PnL

-$27.43

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$226.06

Value

$227.29

PnL

+$1.23

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

Both legs:

Under$158.0667¢+$21.23

Over$6834¢-$20

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$207

Value

$216

PnL

+$9

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

vibing123CTR

Over

Invested

$214.68

Value

$88.82

PnL

-$125.86

Record

52%

1674-1564 (3238)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$95.2

Value

$67.2

PnL

-$28

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

hi774c<$100

Under

Invested

$68.4

Value

$62.4

PnL

-$6

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$74.54

Value

$50.83

PnL

-$1.61

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Under 86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.6%

14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$539.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

639.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.