Spread: Bowling Green (-4.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Kent State (22%) · Kent State at 52¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 11

Bowling Green49¢Kent State51¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kent State

Consensus Traders

Kent State 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.2K

Combined PnL

-$413.74

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 51.5¢

+5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralKent State at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kent State

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bowling Green49%

Kent State52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kent State2 traders

Total Value$13.0K

Total Shares26,255

Combined PnL+$61.71

Bowling Green7 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares24,791

Combined PnL-$475.46

Kent State — 22%Bowling Green — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PW Pwaddler	Kent Stateavg 49¢	$10.2K	$10.2K	-$0	49% 259-274 (533)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Bowling Greenavg 51¢	$6.5K	$6.0K	-$294.65	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
PR primmCTR	Bowling Greenavg 51¢	$4.2K	$4.1K	-$165.69	61% 855-553 (1408)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Kent Stateavg 49.9¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$61.71	54% 1644-1413 (3057)
HI hi774cCTR	Bowling Greenavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$15.3	8% 37-421 (458)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Bowling Greenavg 50¢	$1.0K	$927.88	+$10.74	48% 937-1010 (1947)
└ Bowling Green leg	Bowling Greenavg 50¢	$658.5	$651.92	-$6.59
└ Kent State leg	Kent Stateavg 48¢	$262.3	$275.96	+$17.32
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Bowling Greenavg 51¢	$461.55	$461.55	+$0	47% 500-558 (1058)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Bowling Greenavg 51¢	$204	$204	+$0	10% 83-781 (864)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Bowling Greenavg 50¢	$33.05	$22	+$0.45	49% 438-463 (901)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Bowling Greenavg 50.5¢	$13.57	$13.31	-$0.27	53% 346-302 (648)

Pwaddler

Kent State

Invested

$10,217.32

Value

$10.2K

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

259-274 (533)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Bowling Green

Invested

$6,474.43

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$294.65

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

primmCTR

Bowling Green

Invested

$4,225

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$165.69

Record

61%

855-553 (1408)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Kent State

Invested

$2,694.22

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$61.71

Record

54%

1644-1413 (3057)

hi774cCTR

Bowling Green

Invested

$1,530

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$15.3

Record

37-421 (458)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$1,008.64

Value

$927.88

PnL

+$10.74

Record

48%

937-1010 (1947)

Both legs:

Bowling Green$658.550¢-$6.59

Kent State$262.348¢+$17.32

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Bowling Green

Invested

$461.55

Value

$461.55

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Bowling Green

Invested

$204

Value

$204

PnL

+$0

Record

10%

83-781 (864)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$33.05

Value

$22

PnL

+$0.45

Record

49%

438-463 (901)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$13.57

Value

$13.31

PnL

-$0.27

Record

53%

346-302 (648)

Research grade

NeutralKent State at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Kent State

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kent State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.