Spread: Ohio (-6.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Akron (22%) · Akron at 71¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 4

Ohio30¢Akron70¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Akron

Consensus Traders

Akron 22%

Total Value

$16.6K

Combined PnL

-$341.2

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 70.5¢

+35% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralAkron at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Akron

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ohio30%

Akron71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ohio7 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares15,031

Combined PnL+$2.8K

Akron2 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares14,111

Combined PnL$-3.1K

Ohio — 78%Akron — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Ohioavg 49.2¢	$5.3K	$6.6K	+$1.3K	46% 1196-1386 (2582)
ST stackingsats	Akronavg 52.7¢	$6.8K	$3.9K	$-2.9K	48% 347-374 (721)
RN1CTR	Ohioavg 48¢	$2.4K	$3.5K	+$1.1K	53% 59145-51446 (110591)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Ohioavg 49.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$38.9	51% 4525-4389 (8914)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Ohioavg 49.7¢	$575.79	$810.16	+$234.37	46% 486-561 (1047)
JU justaluckydude	Akronavg 44.5¢	$514.62	$346.86	-$167.76	53% 11571-10123 (21694)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Ohioavg 48.7¢	$130.08	$186.78	+$56.71	53% 951-831 (1782)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Ohioavg 49.7¢	$49.75	$70	+$20.25	48% 276-299 (575)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Ohioavg 16¢	$0.8	$3.5	+$2.7	56% 7565-5995 (13560)

primmCTR

Ohio

Invested

$5,296.43

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

46%

1196-1386 (2582)

stackingsats

Akron

Invested

$6,830.8

Value

$3.9K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

48%

347-374 (721)

RN1CTR

Ohio

Invested

$2,406.72

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

53%

59145-51446 (110591)

6512395314597884CTR

Ohio

Invested

$1,093.18

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$38.9

Record

51%

4525-4389 (8914)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Ohio

Invested

$575.79

Value

$810.16

PnL

+$234.37

Record

46%

486-561 (1047)

justaluckydude

Akron

Invested

$514.62

Value

$346.86

PnL

-$167.76

Record

53%

11571-10123 (21694)

LightParadoxCTR

Ohio

Invested

$130.08

Value

$186.78

PnL

+$56.71

Record

53%

951-831 (1782)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Ohio

Invested

$49.75

Value

$70

PnL

+$20.25

Record

48%

276-299 (575)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Ohio

Invested

$0.8

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$2.7

Record

56%

7565-5995 (13560)

Research grade

NeutralAkron at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Akron

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Akron wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.