Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Miami (OH), while the market favors Ohio (52%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Ohio vs. Miami (OH)

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Miami (OH) (80%) · Miami (OH) at 49¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 11

Ohio52¢Miami (OH)48¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Miami (OH)

Consensus Traders

Miami (OH) 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$13.4

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 48.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralMiami (OH) at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Miami (OH)

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Ohio 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ohio52%

Miami (OH)49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Miami (OH)8 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares8,485

Combined PnL+$14.56

Ohio2 traders

Total Value$129.14

Total Shares253

Combined PnL-$1.17

Miami (OH) — 80%Ohio — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Miami (OH). Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOhio 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMiami (OH) 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Miami (OH) 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Miami (OH)avg 48¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$21.73	47% 500-558 (1058)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Ohioavg 51.7¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$18.21	48% 767-833 (1600)
└ Ohio leg	Ohioavg 51.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$18.06
└ Miami (OH) leg	Miami (OH)avg 48¢	$598.52	$598.37	-$0.15
nigiri99CTR	Miami (OH)avg 48.2¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$7.09	52% 123-112 (235)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Miami (OH)avg 48¢	$245.59	$245.59	+$0	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
RL RLWG<$100	Ohioavg 52¢	$96.2	$94.35	-$1.85	68% 1590-739 (2329)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Miami (OH)avg 48¢	$53.94	$53.63	-$0.31	51% 263-254 (517)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Miami (OH)avg 47¢	$47.53	$48.54	+$1.01	47% 147-167 (314)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Miami (OH)avg 49¢	$35.92	$35.19	-$0.73	50% 1387-1404 (2791)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Ohioavg 50¢	$34.11	$34.79	+$0.68	61% 891-567 (1458)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Miami (OH)avg 48¢	$17.28	$17.28	+$0	8% 35-419 (454)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Miami (OH)avg 48.2¢	$10.16	$10.11	-$0.05	30% 160-377 (537)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Miami (OH)

Invested

$2,086.56

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$21.73

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Ohio

Invested

$1,871.11

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$18.21

Record

48%

767-833 (1600)

Both legs:

Ohio$1,272.5951.7¢-$18.06

Miami (OH)$598.5248¢-$0.15

nigiri99CTR

Miami (OH)

Invested

$1,598.77

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$7.09

Record

52%

123-112 (235)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Miami (OH)

Invested

$245.59

Value

$245.59

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

RLWG<$100

Ohio

Invested

$96.2

Value

$94.35

PnL

-$1.85

Record

68%

1590-739 (2329)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$53.94

Value

$53.63

PnL

-$0.31

Record

51%

263-254 (517)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$47.53

Value

$48.54

PnL

+$1.01

Record

47%

147-167 (314)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$35.92

Value

$35.19

PnL

-$0.73

Record

50%

1387-1404 (2791)

darkumbreon88<$100

Ohio

Invested

$34.11

Value

$34.79

PnL

+$0.68

Record

61%

891-567 (1458)

hi774cCTR<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$17.28

Value

$17.28

PnL

+$0

Record

35-419 (454)

sentrioCTR<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$10.16

Value

$10.11

PnL

-$0.05

Record

30%

160-377 (537)

Research grade

NeutralMiami (OH) at 49%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Miami (OH)

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Ohio 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Miami (OH). Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOhio 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMiami (OH) 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Miami (OH) 80% · 10

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Miami (OH) wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.