Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ohio, while the market favors Miami (OH) (72%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Ohio (-2.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio (60%) · Ohio at 28¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 11

Ohio28¢Miami (OH)72¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ohio

Consensus Traders

Ohio 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$699.84

Smart Money Entry

58.4¢ → 28¢

-52% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOhio at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Miami (OH) 72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ohio28%

Miami (OH)72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Miami (OH)4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,234

Combined PnL+$923.95

Ohio6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,811

Combined PnL-$224.11

Miami (OH) — 40%Ohio — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Ohio. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMiami (OH) 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedOhio 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ohio 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CM cm2897	Miami (OH)avg 38.6¢	$730.72	$1.4K	+$661.37	49% 1097-1127 (2224)
RN1CTR	Ohioavg 58.4¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$94.68	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
PR primm	Miami (OH)avg 48¢	$383.52	$579.28	+$195.76	61% 855-553 (1408)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Ohioavg 61¢	$305	$312.5	+$7.5	56% 504-395 (899)
BI biying88888	Miami (OH)avg 38¢	$204.44	$271.69	+$67.25	27% 63-170 (233)
38 38791873984189CTR	Ohioavg 61.2¢	$399.86	$262.81	-$135.21	48% 969-1052 (2021)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Ohioavg 46¢	$112.36	$151.44	+$39.08	57% 3075-2312 (5387)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Ohioavg 56.3¢	$117.54	$96.81	-$20.74	49% 450-474 (924)
└ Ohio leg	Ohioavg 56.3¢	$81.7	$58.73	-$22.98
└ Miami (OH) leg	Miami (OH)avg 56¢	$35.84	$38.08	+$2.24
65 6512395314597884CTR	Ohioavg 62¢	$139.4	$85.1	-$42.8	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Ohioavg 51¢	$33.98	$35.98	+$2	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
GH ghorrock<$100	Miami (OH)avg 52¢	$1.56	$1.14	-$0.42	54% 401-336 (737)

cm2897

Miami (OH)

Invested

$730.72

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$661.37

Record

49%

1097-1127 (2224)

RN1CTR

Ohio

Invested

$1,269.74

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$94.68

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

primm

Miami (OH)

Invested

$383.52

Value

$579.28

PnL

+$195.76

Record

61%

855-553 (1408)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Ohio

Invested

$305

Value

$312.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

biying88888

Miami (OH)

Invested

$204.44

Value

$271.69

PnL

+$67.25

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

38791873984189CTR

Ohio

Invested

$399.86

Value

$262.81

PnL

-$135.21

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Ohio

Invested

$112.36

Value

$151.44

PnL

+$39.08

Record

57%

3075-2312 (5387)

Pan9XARB<$100

Ohio

Invested

$117.54

Value

$96.81

PnL

-$20.74

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

Both legs:

Ohio$81.756.3¢-$22.98

Miami (OH)$35.8456¢+$2.24

6512395314597884CTR

Ohio

Invested

$139.4

Value

$85.1

PnL

-$42.8

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Ohio

Invested

$33.98

Value

$35.98

PnL

+$2

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

ghorrock<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$0.42

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

Research grade

AvoidOhio at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Miami (OH) 72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Ohio. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMiami (OH) 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedOhio 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ohio 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ohio wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.0%

28.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$233.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

333.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.