Ohio vs. Miami (OH): O/U 47.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 51¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 11

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$30.6K

Combined PnL

$4.12

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 50.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$15.7K

Total Shares31,083

Combined PnL-$153.67

Over5 traders

Total Value$14.9K

Total Shares30,098

Combined PnL+$157.79

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 51¢	$15.7K	$15.6K	-$154.32	54% 1644-1413 (3057)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 49¢	$13.7K	$13.9K	+$140.03	47% 500-558 (1058)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 49¢	$368.07	$371.82	+$3.76	61% 855-553 (1408)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 47¢	$324.29	$338.09	+$13.8	26% 231-671 (902)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 49¢	$331.24	$331.45	+$0.21	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
nigiri99<$100	Underavg 50¢	$85	$85.85	+$0.85	52% 126-118 (244)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$13.62	$13.62	-$0	47% 149-168 (317)
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 51¢	$10.2	$10.2	-$0	68% 1592-743 (2335)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 53¢	$8.93	$8.59	-$0.34	38% 214-345 (559)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 50¢	$6.44	$6.57	+$0.13	48% 937-1010 (1947)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$15,740.2

Value

$15.6K

PnL

-$154.32

Record

54%

1644-1413 (3057)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$13,722.52

Value

$13.9K

PnL

+$140.03

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$368.07

Value

$371.82

PnL

+$3.76

Record

61%

855-553 (1408)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$324.29

Value

$338.09

PnL

+$13.8

Record

26%

231-671 (902)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$331.24

Value

$331.45

PnL

+$0.21

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

nigiri99<$100

Under

Invested

$85

Value

$85.85

PnL

+$0.85

Record

52%

126-118 (244)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.62

Value

$13.62

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

149-168 (317)

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$10.2

Value

$10.2

PnL

-$0

Record

68%

1592-743 (2335)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$8.93

Value

$8.59

PnL

-$0.34

Record

38%

214-345 (559)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$6.44

Value

$6.57

PnL

+$0.13

Record

48%

937-1010 (1947)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.