Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Old Dominion, while the market favors Coastal Carolina (72%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Old Dominion vs. Coastal Carolina

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Old Dominion (70%) · Old Dominion at 28¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 7

Old Dominion28¢Coastal Carolina72¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Old Dominion

Consensus Traders

Old Dominion 70%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$152.53

Smart Money Entry

74.2¢ → 28¢

-62% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOld Dominion at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Old Dominion

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Coastal Carolina 72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Old Dominion28%

Coastal Carolina72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Old Dominion7 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,905

Combined PnL-$564.24

Coastal Carolina3 traders

Total Value$866.32

Total Shares1,203

Combined PnL+$716.77

Old Dominion — 70%Coastal Carolina — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189CTR	Old Dominionavg 87¢	$1.3K	$2.4K	+$1.1K	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
0X 0xfFFF6537	Coastal Carolinaavg 8¢	$80	$720	+$640	49% 1142-1178 (2320)
OJ ojgARB<$100	Old Dominionavg 97.1¢	$730.38	$475.96	-$254.42	43% 838-1096 (1934)
└ Coastal Carolina leg	Coastal Carolinaavg 9.4¢	$36.03	$275.76	+$239.73
└ Old Dominion leg	Old Dominionavg 97.1¢	$694.35	$200.2	-$494.15
RN1CTR	Old Dominionavg 58.8¢	$939.71	$447.16	-$492.55	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Old Dominionavg 70.5¢	$478.86	$360.21	-$6.53	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
└ Coastal Carolina leg	Coastal Carolinaavg 27.4¢	$92.27	$242.05	+$154.47
└ Old Dominion leg	Old Dominionavg 70.5¢	$297.63	$118.16	-$161
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Old Dominionavg 89.5¢	$1.1K	$338.8	-$744.39	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Old Dominionavg 86.9¢	$614.66	$198	-$416.66	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Coastal Carolinaavg 33.7¢	$67.33	$144	+$76.67	47% 535-611 (1146)
LI LimousinCTR	Old Dominionavg 31.6¢	$112.79	$99.81	-$12.98	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Old Dominionavg 85¢	$17.03	$5.61	-$11.41	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Old Dominionavg 31¢	$4.56	$4.11	-$0.44	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
VeryLucky888<$100	Coastal Carolinaavg 69¢	$2.23	$2.32	+$0.1	58% 47904-34520 (82424)

38791873984189CTR

Old Dominion

Invested

$1,316.16

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

0xfFFF6537

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$80

Value

$720

PnL

+$640

Record

49%

1142-1178 (2320)

ojgARB<$100

Old Dominion

Invested

$730.38

Value

$475.96

PnL

-$254.42

Record

43%

838-1096 (1934)

Both legs:

Coastal Carolina$36.039.4¢+$239.73

Old Dominion$694.3597.1¢-$494.15

RN1CTR

Old Dominion

Invested

$939.71

Value

$447.16

PnL

-$492.55

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Pan9XARB<$100

Old Dominion

Invested

$478.86

Value

$360.21

PnL

-$6.53

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Both legs:

Coastal Carolina$92.2727.4¢+$154.47

Old Dominion$297.6370.5¢-$161

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Old Dominion

Invested

$1,083.19

Value

$338.8

PnL

-$744.39

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

6512395314597884CTR

Old Dominion

Invested

$614.66

Value

$198

PnL

-$416.66

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$67.33

Value

$144

PnL

+$76.67

Record

47%

535-611 (1146)

LimousinCTR

Old Dominion

Invested

$112.79

Value

$99.81

PnL

-$12.98

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Old Dominion

Invested

$17.03

Value

$5.61

PnL

-$11.41

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

hi774cCTR<$100

Old Dominion

Invested

$4.56

Value

$4.11

PnL

-$0.44

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

VeryLucky888<$100

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$2.23

Value

$2.32

PnL

+$0.1

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Research grade

AvoidOld Dominion at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Old Dominion

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Coastal Carolina 72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Old Dominion wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.0%

28.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$233.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

333.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.