UMass vs. Toledo

4 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Toledo (29%) · Toledo at 84¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 12

UMass17¢Toledo83¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Toledo

Consensus Traders

Toledo 29%

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$145.51

Smart Money Entry

85¢ → 83.5¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralToledo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Toledo

4 of 14 top traders (29%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

UMass17%

Toledo84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Toledo4 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares5,124

Combined PnL+$16.43

UMass10 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares8,640

Combined PnL+$129.08

Toledo — 29%UMass — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-78 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

44h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Toledo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Toledo) and the top 1000 (8 on UMass) disagree here.

ctrUMass 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedToledo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000UMass 100% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Toledoavg 84¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$9.92	51% 3724-3550 (7274)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	UMassavg 15.1¢	$901.51	$974.56	+$73.05	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
VeryLucky888	Toledoavg 83¢	$1.8K	$953.58	+$16.54	52% 497-452 (949)
38 38791873984189	Toledoavg 87¢	$870	$885	+$15	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
OJ ojg	Toledoavg 87¢	$870.72	$845.69	-$25.03	43% 140-183 (323)
HI hi774cCTR	UMassavg 14.1¢	$158.28	$191.15	+$32.87	14% 77-472 (549)
SN SnakeBallCTR	UMassavg 15¢	$97.49	$110.49	+$13	47% 299-342 (641)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	UMassavg 16¢	$80	$82.5	+$2.5	20% 99-384 (483)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	UMassavg 16¢	$80	$82.5	+$2.5	59% 3478-2370 (5848)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	UMassavg 16¢	$42.88	$44.22	+$1.34	49% 692-733 (1425)
0X 0xfacfa554306c067bc5fd3be22390846e75bd2940CTR<$100	UMassavg 14¢	$32.2	$31.05	-$1.15	0% 0-25 (25)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	UMassavg 15.1¢	$14.8	$16.78	+$4.06	55% 680-552 (1232)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	UMassavg 14¢	$3.92	$4.75	+$0.84	53% 5815-5180 (10995)
13 13897651CTR<$100	UMassavg 19¢	$2.85	$2.93	+$0.08	36% 607-1081 (1688)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Toledo

Invested

$1,666.85

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$9.92

Record

51%

3724-3550 (7274)

HomeRunHazardCTR

UMass

Invested

$901.51

Value

$974.56

PnL

+$73.05

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

VeryLucky888

Toledo

Invested

$1,846.4

Value

$953.58

PnL

+$16.54

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

38791873984189

Toledo

Invested

$870

Value

$885

PnL

+$15

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

ojg

Toledo

Invested

$870.72

Value

$845.69

PnL

-$25.03

Record

43%

140-183 (323)

hi774cCTR

UMass

Invested

$158.28

Value

$191.15

PnL

+$32.87

Record

14%

77-472 (549)

SnakeBallCTR

UMass

Invested

$97.49

Value

$110.49

PnL

+$13

Record

47%

299-342 (641)

GC-PCTR<$100

UMass

Invested

$80

Value

$82.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

20%

99-384 (483)

NM-PCTR<$100

UMass

Invested

$80

Value

$82.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

59%

3478-2370 (5848)

Pan9XCTR<$100

UMass

Invested

$42.88

Value

$44.22

PnL

+$1.34

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

0xfacfa554306c067bc5fd3be22390846e75bd2940CTR<$100

UMass

Invested

$32.2

Value

$31.05

PnL

-$1.15

Record

0-25 (25)

ghorrockCTR<$100

UMass

Invested

$14.8

Value

$16.78

PnL

+$4.06

Record

55%

680-552 (1232)

cigarettesCTR<$100

UMass

Invested

$3.92

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$0.84

Record

53%

5815-5180 (10995)

13897651CTR<$100

UMass

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.93

PnL

+$0.08

Record

36%

607-1081 (1688)

Research grade

NeutralToledo at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Toledo

4 of 14 top traders (29%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-78 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

44h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Toledo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Toledo) and the top 1000 (8 on UMass) disagree here.

ctrUMass 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedToledo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000UMass 100% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Toledo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.