Spread: Western Michigan (-20.5)

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Western Michigan (42%) · Western Michigan at 56¢ · $25K held · ended Nov 11

Western Michigan56¢Akron44¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Western Michigan

Consensus Traders

Western Michigan 42%

Total Value

$24.8K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 56.5¢

+10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralWestern Michigan at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Western Michigan

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Western Michigan56%

Akron44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Western Michigan5 traders

Total Value$13.6K

Total Shares25,076

Combined PnL+$752.24

Akron7 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares21,858

Combined PnL+$302.02

Western Michigan — 42%Akron — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Western Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperWestern Michigan 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWestern Michigan 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedAkron 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Akron 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST stackingsats	Western Michiganavg 52.3¢	$12.4K	$12.9K	+$528.1	1% 1-179 (180)
RN1CTR	Akronavg 48.1¢	$7.2K	$7.9K	+$657.92	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Akronavg 48¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$16.72	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
38 38791873984189CTR	Akronavg 59.1¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$290.82	48% 949-1019 (1968)
VE Venusian	Western Michiganavg 36¢	$268.44	$387.75	+$119.31	28% 279-730 (1009)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Akronavg 48¢	$240	$237.5	-$2.5	56% 488-383 (871)
LI Limousin	Western Michiganavg 36¢	$113.14	$163.42	+$50.28	28% 285-731 (1016)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Western Michiganavg 37¢	$92.5	$146.25	+$53.75	25% 114-349 (463)
PA Pan9XCTR	Akronavg 50.7¢	$113.11	$105.93	-$7.19	49% 444-470 (914)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Akronavg 63¢	$134.8	$98.27	-$36.52	51% 3172-3072 (6244)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Akronavg 64¢	$8.6	$6.45	-$2.15	54% 383-322 (705)
MA MadridTime<$100	Western Michiganavg 36¢	$1.8	$2.6	+$0.8	28% 279-704 (983)

stackingsats

Western Michigan

Invested

$12,421.64

Value

$12.9K

PnL

+$528.1

Record

1-179 (180)

RN1CTR

Akron

Invested

$7,249.9

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$657.92

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Akron

Invested

$1,605.41

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$16.72

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

38791873984189CTR

Akron

Invested

$1,484.98

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$290.82

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

Venusian

Western Michigan

Invested

$268.44

Value

$387.75

PnL

+$119.31

Record

28%

279-730 (1009)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Akron

Invested

$240

Value

$237.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

Limousin

Western Michigan

Invested

$113.14

Value

$163.42

PnL

+$50.28

Record

28%

285-731 (1016)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Western Michigan

Invested

$92.5

Value

$146.25

PnL

+$53.75

Record

25%

114-349 (463)

Pan9XCTR

Akron

Invested

$113.11

Value

$105.93

PnL

-$7.19

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

6512395314597884CTR

Akron

Invested

$134.8

Value

$98.27

PnL

-$36.52

Record

51%

3172-3072 (6244)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Akron

Invested

$8.6

Value

$6.45

PnL

-$2.15

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

MadridTime<$100

Western Michigan

Invested

$1.8

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.8

Record

28%

279-704 (983)

Research grade

NeutralWestern Michigan at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Western Michigan

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Western Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperWestern Michigan 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWestern Michigan 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedAkron 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Akron 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Western Michigan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.