Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (82%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-11-08?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 19¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8

Yes19¢No81¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$377.95

Smart Money Entry

13.2¢ → 18.5¢

+41% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares7,021

Combined PnL+$420.38

No3 traders

Total Value$361.36

Total Shares463

Combined PnL-$42.42

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 65.8¢	$2.5K	$3.5K	+$979.23	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ No leg	Noavg 65.8¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$450.21
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 10.1¢	$730.04	$1.3K	+$529.02
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 8¢	$236	$516.25	+$280.25	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 8.2¢	$204.08	$433.67	+$229.59	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
oieshfn345	Noavg 86.6¢	$281.96	$265.43	-$16.53	58% 2117-1562 (3679)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 37.2¢	$263.99	$238.04	-$25.95	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 85.6¢	$217.29	$207.04	-$7.21	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ No leg	Noavg 85.6¢	$166.78	$160.65	-$6.13
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18¢	$47.62	$46.38	-$1.07
RN1CTR	Yesavg 24.7¢	$215.85	$152.69	-$63.16	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
dips.	Noavg 91.4¢	$100.55	$73.15	-$27.4	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 79.3¢	$25.87	$22.78	+$1.51	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 37.2¢	$3.01	$2.72	-$0.3	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$0.59	$0.53	-$0.06	50% 26504-26107 (52611)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$2,508.67

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$979.23

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

No$1,778.6365.8¢+$450.21

Yes$730.0410.1¢+$529.02

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$236

Value

$516.25

PnL

+$280.25

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$204.08

Value

$433.67

PnL

+$229.59

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

oieshfn345

Invested

$281.96

Value

$265.43

PnL

-$16.53

Record

58%

2117-1562 (3679)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$263.99

Value

$238.04

PnL

-$25.95

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$217.29

Value

$207.04

PnL

-$7.21

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Invested

$215.85

Value

$152.69

PnL

-$63.16

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

dips.

Invested

$100.55

Value

$73.15

PnL

-$27.4

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$25.87

Value

$22.78

PnL

+$1.51

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.01

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$0.3

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$0.06

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.3%

18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$392.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

493.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.