Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-11-08?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 62¢ · $81K held · ended Nov 8

Yes39¢No61¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$80.7K

Combined PnL

-$335.83

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 61.5¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$35.6K

Total Shares88,002

Combined PnL+$325.07

No10 traders

Total Value$45.0K

Total Shares75,480

Combined PnL-$660.9

Yes — 17%No — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DE DelidelaDeleCTR	Yesavg 40.1¢	$35.3K	$35.6K	+$325	45% 41-51 (92)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 60¢	$36.2K	$35.3K	-$899.05	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
RN1	Noavg 60.3¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$122.69	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 61.2¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$14.23	50% 3040-2982 (6022)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 60.1¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$50.06	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
OD Oddstorm	Noavg 60¢	$688.94	$717.64	+$28.71	48% 8326-8887 (17213)
NO Notradecopy	Noavg 61.2¢	$509.99	$495.82	-$14.17	48% 4169-4501 (8670)
GC GC-P	Noavg 60.5¢	$464.01	$456.37	-$7.64	57% 22242-16601 (38843)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 60¢	$192	$200	+$8	50% 65490-65806 (131296)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 60¢	$120.32	$125.33	+$5.01	50% 9315-9358 (18673)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	No	$31.25	$31.25	+$31.25	32% 21156-45383 (66539)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$1.8	$1.88	+$0.07	52% 9515-8627 (18142)

DelidelaDeleCTR

Yes

Invested

$35,313.94

Value

$35.6K

PnL

+$325

Record

45%

41-51 (92)

Flaznorp

Invested

$36,212.02

Value

$35.3K

PnL

-$899.05

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

RN1

Invested

$3,291.06

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$122.69

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$2,903.35

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$14.23

Record

50%

3040-2982 (6022)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,275.24

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$50.06

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

Oddstorm

Invested

$688.94

Value

$717.64

PnL

+$28.71

Record

48%

8326-8887 (17213)

Notradecopy

Invested

$509.99

Value

$495.82

PnL

-$14.17

Record

48%

4169-4501 (8670)

GC-P

Invested

$464.01

Value

$456.37

PnL

-$7.64

Record

57%

22242-16601 (38843)

cigarettes

Invested

$192

Value

$200

PnL

+$8

Record

50%

65490-65806 (131296)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$120.32

Value

$125.33

PnL

+$5.01

Record

50%

9315-9358 (18673)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$31.25

Value

$31.25

PnL

+$31.25

Record

32%

21156-45383 (66539)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.88

PnL

+$0.07

Record

52%

9515-8627 (18142)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.