Atalanta BC vs. Qairat FK: O/U 1.5

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 83¢ · $620 held · ended Nov 5

Over83¢Under17¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

Total Value

$619.54

Combined PnL

$56.09

Smart Money Entry

78.9¢ → 82.5¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over83%

Under18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$221.04

Total Shares259

Combined PnL+$1.47

Under9 traders

Total Value$398.49

Total Shares1,485

Combined PnL+$54.62

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA Pan9X	Overavg 82¢	$179.34	$180.43	+$1.1	55% 9735-8125 (17860)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 10¢	$22.84	$111.91	+$89.07	51% 37665-36890 (74555)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 29.3¢	$145.25	$93.45	-$51.81	51% 25736-24442 (50178)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Underavg 15¢	$20	$65.33	+$45.33	53% 2573-2253 (4826)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 20.2¢	$47.68	$38.94	-$8.74	51% 1376-1340 (2716)
RN1<$100	Overavg 59¢	$35.11	$35.35	+$0.25	53% 61353-53664 (115017)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 22.3¢	$45.64	$33.7	-$11.94	52% 1374-1289 (2663)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 19.4¢	$30.75	$26.18	-$4.57	53% 1421-1264 (2685)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$23.35	$23.93	+$0.58	49% 14708-15378 (30086)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 77¢	$5.13	$5.26	+$0.13	47% 11692-13410 (25102)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 26.6¢	$7.7	$4.79	-$2.92	50% 1322-1299 (2621)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$0.67	$0.28	-$0.39	48% 61037-65871 (126908)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$179.34

Value

$180.43

PnL

+$1.1

Record

55%

9735-8125 (17860)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$22.84

Value

$111.91

PnL

+$89.07

Record

51%

37665-36890 (74555)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$145.25

Value

$93.45

PnL

-$51.81

Record

51%

25736-24442 (50178)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$65.33

PnL

+$45.33

Record

53%

2573-2253 (4826)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.68

Value

$38.94

PnL

-$8.74

Record

51%

1376-1340 (2716)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$35.11

Value

$35.35

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

61353-53664 (115017)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$45.64

Value

$33.7

PnL

-$11.94

Record

52%

1374-1289 (2663)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.75

Value

$26.18

PnL

-$4.57

Record

53%

1421-1264 (2685)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.35

Value

$23.93

PnL

+$0.58

Record

49%

14708-15378 (30086)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$5.13

Value

$5.26

PnL

+$0.13

Record

47%

11692-13410 (25102)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.7

Value

$4.79

PnL

-$2.92

Record

50%

1322-1299 (2621)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.67

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$0.39

Record

48%

61037-65871 (126908)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 83%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.