Will FC Lugano win on 2026-11-05?
2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 86¢ · $598 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
12
Yes 17%
$597.77
-$15.22
85¢ → 85.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Yesavg 85¢ | $340 | $342 | +$2 | 56% 7908-6321 (14229) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Noavg 16.2¢ | $83.57 | $74.83 | -$8.73 | 52% 1365-1285 (2650) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 15.6¢ | $56.85 | $54.53 | -$2.32 | 50% 1313-1295 (2608) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 15.6¢ | $43.16 | $41.4 | -$1.76 | 53% 1413-1258 (2671) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 15.8¢ | $37.61 | $35.7 | -$1.91 | 51% 1371-1334 (2705) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Noavg 15.7¢ | $19.34 | $17.91 | -$1.43 | 51% 25716-24429 (50145) |
WA waierma<$100 | Yesavg 85.6¢ | $10.08 | $10.06 | +$0.06 | 44% 80-103 (183) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $6.38 | $6.39 | +$0.01 | 64% 9962-5593 (15555) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 16¢ | $13.92 | $6.3 | -$0.42 | 48% 61036-65868 (126904) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 15.2¢ | $6.26 | $5.95 | -$0.31 | 50% 25811-25501 (51312) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 18¢ | $2.02 | $1.68 | -$0.34 | 53% 16798-14919 (31717) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Noavg 15.6¢ | $1.09 | $1.02 | -$0.08 | 50% 21156-21414 (42570) |
0xheavy888Invested
$340
Value
$342
PnL
+$2
Record
56%
7908-6321 (14229)
Invested
$83.57
Value
$74.83
PnL
-$8.73
Record
52%
1365-1285 (2650)
Invested
$56.85
Value
$54.53
PnL
-$2.32
Record
50%
1313-1295 (2608)
Invested
$43.16
Value
$41.4
PnL
-$1.76
Record
53%
1413-1258 (2671)
Invested
$37.61
Value
$35.7
PnL
-$1.91
Record
51%
1371-1334 (2705)
Invested
$19.34
Value
$17.91
PnL
-$1.43
Record
51%
25716-24429 (50145)
Invested
$10.08
Value
$10.06
PnL
+$0.06
Record
44%
80-103 (183)
Invested
$6.38
Value
$6.39
PnL
+$0.01
Record
64%
9962-5593 (15555)
Invested
$13.92
Value
$6.3
PnL
-$0.42
Record
48%
61036-65868 (126904)
Invested
$6.26
Value
$5.95
PnL
-$0.31
Record
50%
25811-25501 (51312)
Invested
$2.02
Value
$1.68
PnL
-$0.34
Record
53%
16798-14919 (31717)
Invested
$1.09
Value
$1.02
PnL
-$0.08
Record
50%
21156-21414 (42570)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.