Spread: FC Lugano (-1.5)

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold FC Lugano (50%) · FC Lugano at 65¢ · $692 held · ends Nov 5

FC Lugano65¢FK Kauno Žalgiris35¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FC Lugano

Consensus Traders

FC Lugano 50%

Total Value

$691.86

Combined PnL

-$9.97

Smart Money Entry

63.9¢ → 64.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralFC Lugano at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FC Lugano

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

FC Lugano65%

FK Kauno Žalgiris36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FC Lugano6 traders

Total Value$414.66

Total Shares644

Combined PnL-$0.1

FK Kauno Žalgiris6 traders

Total Value$277.21

Total Shares780

Combined PnL-$9.88

FC Lugano — 50%FK Kauno Žalgiris — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on FC Lugano. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on FC Lugano) and the top 1000 (10 on FK Kauno Žalgiris) disagree here.

whaleFC Lugano 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrFC Lugano 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedFC Lugano 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000FK Kauno Žalgiris 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	FC Luganoavg 64¢	$195.52	$197.05	-$1.53	56% 7908-6321 (14229)
VeryLucky888	FC Luganoavg 64¢	$167.04	$168.35	+$1.31	58% 46667-33629 (80296)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	FK Kauno Žalgirisavg 37.2¢	$76.35	$72.95	-$3.39	51% 1371-1334 (2705)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	FK Kauno Žalgirisavg 37.2¢	$62.88	$60.08	-$2.8	52% 1365-1285 (2650)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	FK Kauno Žalgirisavg 37.2¢	$61.3	$58.57	-$2.73	50% 1313-1295 (2608)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	FK Kauno Žalgirisavg 37.2¢	$43.84	$41.89	-$1.95	53% 1413-1258 (2671)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	FK Kauno Žalgirisavg 35¢	$25.85	$26.22	+$0.37	50% 28410-28315 (56725)
38 38791873984189<$100	FC Luganoavg 64¢	$25.55	$25.35	-$0.2	48% 61036-65868 (126904)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	FK Kauno Žalgirisavg 35.2¢	$16.87	$17.49	+$0.62	50% 25811-25501 (51312)
rayvanmechelen<$100	FC Luganoavg 61¢	$10.52	$11.03	+$0.26	53% 2570-2251 (4821)
PA Pan9X<$100	FC Luganoavg 64¢	$9.6	$9.68	+$0.08	55% 9735-8124 (17859)
FL Flaznorp<$100	FC Luganoavg 64.2¢	$3.21	$3.2	-$0.01	51% 25716-24429 (50145)

0xheavy888

FC Lugano

Invested

$195.52

Value

$197.05

PnL

-$1.53

Record

56%

7908-6321 (14229)

VeryLucky888

FC Lugano

Invested

$167.04

Value

$168.35

PnL

+$1.31

Record

58%

46667-33629 (80296)

VenusianCTR<$100

FK Kauno Žalgiris

Invested

$76.35

Value

$72.95

PnL

-$3.39

Record

51%

1371-1334 (2705)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

FK Kauno Žalgiris

Invested

$62.88

Value

$60.08

PnL

-$2.8

Record

52%

1365-1285 (2650)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

FK Kauno Žalgiris

Invested

$61.3

Value

$58.57

PnL

-$2.73

Record

50%

1313-1295 (2608)

LimousinCTR<$100

FK Kauno Žalgiris

Invested

$43.84

Value

$41.89

PnL

-$1.95

Record

53%

1413-1258 (2671)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

FK Kauno Žalgiris

Invested

$25.85

Value

$26.22

PnL

+$0.37

Record

50%

28410-28315 (56725)

38791873984189<$100

FC Lugano

Invested

$25.55

Value

$25.35

PnL

-$0.2

Record

48%

61036-65868 (126904)

sentrioCTR<$100

FK Kauno Žalgiris

Invested

$16.87

Value

$17.49

PnL

+$0.62

Record

50%

25811-25501 (51312)

rayvanmechelen<$100

FC Lugano

Invested

$10.52

Value

$11.03

PnL

+$0.26

Record

53%

2570-2251 (4821)

Pan9X<$100

FC Lugano

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.68

PnL

+$0.08

Record

55%

9735-8124 (17859)

Flaznorp<$100

FC Lugano

Invested

$3.21

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

25716-24429 (50145)

Research grade

NeutralFC Lugano at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

FC Lugano

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on FC Lugano. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on FC Lugano) and the top 1000 (10 on FK Kauno Žalgiris) disagree here.

whaleFC Lugano 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrFC Lugano 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedFC Lugano 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000FK Kauno Žalgiris 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FC Lugano wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.