Will CDP Junior FC vs. Cúcuta Deportivo FC end in a draw?
5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 83¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 50%
$6.2K
$54.08
74.4¢ → 82.5¢
+11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 74.6¢ | $3.9K | $3.9K | +$27.65 | 52% 271-247 (518) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 74¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$19.5 | 52% 50-46 (96) |
 RN1 | Noavg 74¢ | $530.58 | $537.75 | +$7.17 | 54% 248-213 (461) |
TH thirdt1me | Noavg 74.7¢ | $200.95 | $200.29 | -$0.66 | 0% 0-36 (36) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 76.3¢ | $22.6 | $22.35 | -$0.25 | 20% 48-194 (242) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.5¢ | $18.74 | $18.73 | -$0.01 | 26% 102-296 (398) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.7¢ | $17.83 | $18.03 | +$0.2 | 28% 104-265 (369) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.6¢ | $13.63 | $14.07 | +$0.44 | 26% 97-281 (378) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.8¢ | $12.09 | $12.17 | +$0.08 | 27% 100-275 (375) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $2.6 | $2.55 | -$0.05 | 24% 59-185 (244) |
Invested
$3,884.44
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$27.65
Record
52%
271-247 (518)
Invested
$1,466.9
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$19.5
Record
52%
50-46 (96)
RN1Invested
$530.58
Value
$537.75
PnL
+$7.17
Record
54%
248-213 (461)
Invested
$200.95
Value
$200.29
PnL
-$0.66
Record
0%
0-36 (36)
Invested
$22.6
Value
$22.35
PnL
-$0.25
Record
20%
48-194 (242)
Invested
$18.74
Value
$18.73
PnL
-$0.01
Record
26%
102-296 (398)
Invested
$17.83
Value
$18.03
PnL
+$0.2
Record
28%
104-265 (369)
Invested
$13.63
Value
$14.07
PnL
+$0.44
Record
26%
97-281 (378)
Invested
$12.09
Value
$12.17
PnL
+$0.08
Record
27%
100-275 (375)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.55
PnL
-$0.05
Record
24%
59-185 (244)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.