Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Uganda Women, while the market favors Namibia Women (100%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Victoria Women T20I: Namibia Women vs Uganda Women

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Uganda Women (50%) · Uganda Women at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 17

Namibia Women>99¢Uganda Women<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Uganda Women

Consensus Traders

Uganda Women 50%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$536.02

Smart Money Entry

74.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUganda Women at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Uganda Women

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Namibia Women 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Namibia Women100%

Uganda Women0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Namibia Women5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,579

Combined PnL+$352.94

Uganda Women5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,195

Combined PnL-$888.96

Namibia Women — 50%Uganda Women — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Uganda Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUganda Women 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Namibia Women 50% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tradecraft	Namibia Womenavg 54.4¢	$896.19	$1.0K	+$295.02	15% 97-565 (662)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Uganda Womenavg 83¢	$1.1K	$768.95	-$273.67	23% 87-297 (384)
PA pagliacci4	Namibia Womenavg 99.9¢	$427.6	$427.82	+$0.21	20% 8-32 (40)
dips.CTR	Uganda Womenavg 75.4¢	$874.56	$378.26	-$446.13	42% 189-265 (454)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Namibia Womenavg 47.2¢	$35.42	$74.98	+$39.56	54% 1612-1363 (2975)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Uganda Womenavg 69.4¢	$70.12	$50.01	-$20.1	52% 5322-4827 (10149)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Namibia Womenavg 74.9¢	$21.6	$28.81	+$7.21	35% 176-320 (496)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Namibia Womenavg 23.5¢	$5.11	$16.05	+$10.94	50% 1390-1407 (2797)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Uganda Womenavg 69.3¢	$71.21	$16.04	-$55.17	50% 138-137 (275)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Uganda Womenavg 40¢	$94	$0.12	-$93.88	47% 68-76 (144)

tradecraft

Namibia Women

Invested

$896.19

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$295.02

Record

15%

97-565 (662)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Uganda Women

Invested

$1,083.06

Value

$768.95

PnL

-$273.67

Record

23%

87-297 (384)

pagliacci4

Namibia Women

Invested

$427.6

Value

$427.82

PnL

+$0.21

Record

20%

8-32 (40)

dips.CTR

Uganda Women

Invested

$874.56

Value

$378.26

PnL

-$446.13

Record

42%

189-265 (454)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Namibia Women

Invested

$35.42

Value

$74.98

PnL

+$39.56

Record

54%

1612-1363 (2975)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Uganda Women

Invested

$70.12

Value

$50.01

PnL

-$20.1

Record

52%

5322-4827 (10149)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Namibia Women

Invested

$21.6

Value

$28.81

PnL

+$7.21

Record

35%

176-320 (496)

Flaznorp<$100

Namibia Women

Invested

$5.11

Value

$16.05

PnL

+$10.94

Record

50%

1390-1407 (2797)

lryyyCTR<$100

Uganda Women

Invested

$71.21

Value

$16.04

PnL

-$55.17

Record

50%

138-137 (275)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Uganda Women

Invested

$94

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$93.88

Record

47%

68-76 (144)

Research grade

AvoidUganda Women at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Uganda Women

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Namibia Women 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Uganda Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUganda Women 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Namibia Women 50% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Uganda Women wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.