Cricket World Cup League 2: Oman vs Netherlands

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Netherlands (44%) · Netherlands at 96¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 9

Oman4¢Netherlands96¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Netherlands

Consensus Traders

Netherlands 44%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

$163.41

Smart Money Entry

91.8¢ → 95.6¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNetherlands at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Netherlands

4 of 9 top traders (44%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Oman4%

Netherlands96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Netherlands4 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares7,635

Combined PnL+$192.25

Oman5 traders

Total Value$136.53

Total Shares1,685

Combined PnL-$28.85

Netherlands — 44%Oman — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Netherlands. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNetherlands 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNetherlands 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOman 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Netherlands 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graziek99	Netherlandsavg 93.3¢	$6.1K	$5.4K	+$131.59	87% 463-69 (532)
DI dips.	Netherlandsavg 84.3¢	$730.87	$750.55	+$73.96	46% 7314-8499 (15813)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Netherlandsavg 81.7¢	$1.4K	$691.82	+$28.73	47% 12972-14546 (27518)
└ Netherlands leg	Netherlandsavg 81.7¢	$473.08	$546.5	+$128.52
└ Oman leg	Omanavg 9.9¢	$253.53	$145.32	-$99.8
NO NotJump	Netherlandsavg 89.8¢	$643.77	$629.65	-$14.12	42% 7723-10451 (18174)
tradecraft	Netherlandsavg 88.2¢	$543.78	$562.08	+$0.83	51% 6150-5871 (12021)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Netherlandsavg 91.6¢	$422.86	$347.4	-$75.46	47% 10050-11152 (21202)
└ Netherlands leg	Netherlandsavg 91.6¢	$223.44	$230.37	+$6.93
└ Oman leg	Omanavg 9.5¢	$199.42	$117.03	-$82.39
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Netherlandsavg 90.6¢	$239.97	$256.2	+$16.23	56% 18363-14703 (33066)
└ Netherlands leg	Netherlandsavg 90.6¢	$148.39	$153.79	+$5.4
└ Oman leg	Omanavg 5.5¢	$91.59	$102.41	+$10.82
SM smithagentARB<$100	Omanavg 5.7¢	$143.1	$126.51	-$16.59	48% 3290-3579 (6869)
└ Oman leg	Omanavg 5.7¢	$89.49	$70.16	-$19.33
└ Netherlands leg	Netherlandsavg 90.9¢	$53.61	$56.35	+$2.73
poshposhCTR	Omanavg 18.8¢	$137.72	$63.48	-$74.44	58% 11423-8278 (19701)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Omanavg 27.3¢	$46.06	$45.61	+$70.72	37% 731-1227 (1958)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Omanavg 6¢	$12	$14	+$2	49% 2601-2655 (5256)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Omanavg 21.3¢	$39.82	$13.09	-$26.73	46% 7927-9248 (17175)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Omanavg 25¢	$0.75	$0.35	-$0.4	51% 991-958 (1949)

graziek99

Netherlands

Invested

$6,061.21

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$131.59

Record

87%

463-69 (532)

dips.

Netherlands

Invested

$730.87

Value

$750.55

PnL

+$73.96

Record

46%

7314-8499 (15813)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Netherlands

Invested

$1,389.57

Value

$691.82

PnL

+$28.73

Record

47%

12972-14546 (27518)

Both legs:

Netherlands$473.0881.7¢+$128.52

Oman$253.539.9¢-$99.8

NotJump

Netherlands

Invested

$643.77

Value

$629.65

PnL

-$14.12

Record

42%

7723-10451 (18174)

tradecraft

Netherlands

Invested

$543.78

Value

$562.08

PnL

+$0.83

Record

51%

6150-5871 (12021)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Netherlands

Invested

$422.86

Value

$347.4

PnL

-$75.46

Record

47%

10050-11152 (21202)

Both legs:

Netherlands$223.4491.6¢+$6.93

Oman$199.429.5¢-$82.39

cigarettesARB<$100

Netherlands

Invested

$239.97

Value

$256.2

PnL

+$16.23

Record

56%

18363-14703 (33066)

Both legs:

Netherlands$148.3990.6¢+$5.4

Oman$91.595.5¢+$10.82

smithagentARB<$100

Oman

Invested

$143.1

Value

$126.51

PnL

-$16.59

Record

48%

3290-3579 (6869)

Both legs:

Oman$89.495.7¢-$19.33

Netherlands$53.6190.9¢+$2.73

poshposhCTR

Oman

Invested

$137.72

Value

$63.48

PnL

-$74.44

Record

58%

11423-8278 (19701)

mouzsynapseCTR

Oman

Invested

$46.06

Value

$45.61

PnL

+$70.72

Record

37%

731-1227 (1958)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Oman

Invested

$12

Value

$14

PnL

+$2

Record

49%

2601-2655 (5256)

lryyyCTR<$100

Oman

Invested

$39.82

Value

$13.09

PnL

-$26.73

Record

46%

7927-9248 (17175)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Oman

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$0.4

Record

51%

991-958 (1949)

Research grade

NeutralNetherlands at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Netherlands

4 of 9 top traders (44%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Netherlands. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNetherlands 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNetherlands 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOman 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Netherlands 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Netherlands wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.8%

95.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.