Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (60%) · MOUZ at 78¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 11

MOUZ78¢G222¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MOUZ

Consensus Traders

MOUZ 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.7K

Combined PnL

-$91.49

Smart Money Entry

78.4¢ → 77.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

MOUZ78%

G223%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MOUZ6 traders

Total Value$13.6K

Total Shares17,438

Combined PnL-$88.75

G24 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares19,004

Combined PnL-$2.74

MOUZ — 60%G2 — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperMOUZ 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrMOUZ 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000MOUZ 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
relativesignificance	MOUZavg 78.7¢	$8.4K	$8.3K	-$71.93	57% 145-111 (256)
LL lllllllIlllCTR	G2avg 21¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	+$0	1% 2-199 (201)
AS asuka7	MOUZavg 78.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$30	2% 5-304 (309)
RA Rayaya	MOUZavg 77¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$14.2	—
OD Oddstorm	MOUZavg 78¢	$435.1	$435.1	-$0	15% 16-94 (110)
PU purplegattoARB<$100	MOUZavg 79¢	$166.58	$165.33	-$1.25	69% 2572-1165 (3737)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 79¢	$98.75	$97.5	-$1.25
└ G2 leg	G2avg 21¢	$67.83	$67.83	+$0
OM omnibus-076daa	MOUZavg 79¢	$110.1	$108.71	-$1.39	37% 191-330 (521)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	G2avg 22¢	$83.16	$79.38	-$3.78	48% 859-937 (1796)
JO JohnnyWinsCTR<$100	G2avg 20¢	$23.33	$24.49	+$1.17	0% 0-68 (68)
GH ghorrock<$100	MOUZavg 78.5¢	$65.13	$5.61	+$0.36	53% 323-288 (611)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	G2avg 22¢	$2.76	$2.63	-$0.13	50% 1408-1410 (2818)

relativesignificance

MOUZ

Invested

$8,411.9

Value

$8.3K

PnL

-$71.93

Record

57%

145-111 (256)

lllllllIlllCTR

Invested

$3,884.25

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$0

Record

2-199 (201)

asuka7

MOUZ

Invested

$2,526.53

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$30

Record

5-304 (309)

Rayaya

MOUZ

Invested

$2,187.39

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$14.2

Record

—

Oddstorm

MOUZ

Invested

$435.1

Value

$435.1

PnL

-$0

Record

15%

16-94 (110)

purplegattoARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$166.58

Value

$165.33

PnL

-$1.25

Record

69%

2572-1165 (3737)

Both legs:

Invested

$110.1

Value

$108.71

PnL

-$1.39

Record

37%

191-330 (521)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$83.16

Value

$79.38

PnL

-$3.78

Record

48%

859-937 (1796)

JohnnyWinsCTR<$100

Invested

$23.33

Value

$24.49

PnL

+$1.17

Record

0-68 (68)

ghorrock<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$65.13

Value

$5.61

PnL

+$0.36

Record

53%

323-288 (611)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$2.76

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

1408-1410 (2818)

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperMOUZ 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrMOUZ 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000MOUZ 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.