Will Brøndby IF win on 2026-11-08?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$619.29

Smart Money Entry

83¢ → 98.2¢

+18% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,763

Combined PnL-$364.46

Yes1 trader

Total Value$51.81

Total Shares1,546

Combined PnL-$254.84

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 84.7¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$1.95	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 79.9¢	$1.2K	$912.4	-$269.07	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 86¢	$463.52	$396.82	-$47.69	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 80.9¢	$258.94	$135.13	-$43.63	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 82.7¢	$127.95	$123.7	-$4.25	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$67.05	$70.18	+$3.13	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
└ No leg	Noavg 96.4¢	$49.41	$50.02	+$0.61
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 2.1¢	$17.64	$20.16	+$2.52
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 80.5¢	$60.8	$60.93	+$0.13	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$55.1	$54.54	-$0.56	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 19.8¢	$306.64	$51.81	-$254.84	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 82.3¢	$39.91	$36.62	-$3.29	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 93.9¢	$29.4	$30.7	+$1.29	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Noavg 93¢	$13.21	$13.86	+$0.65	84% 15082-2932 (18014)

RN1

Invested

$1,011.54

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$1.95

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,181.47

Value

$912.4

PnL

-$269.07

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

38791873984189

Invested

$463.52

Value

$396.82

PnL

-$47.69

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Pan9X

Invested

$258.94

Value

$135.13

PnL

-$43.63

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

MadridTime

Invested

$127.95

Value

$123.7

PnL

-$4.25

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Invested

$67.05

Value

$70.18

PnL

+$3.13

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

Both legs:

No$49.4196.4¢+$0.61

Yes$17.642.1¢+$2.52

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$60.8

Value

$60.93

PnL

+$0.13

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$55.1

Value

$54.54

PnL

-$0.56

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$306.64

Value

$51.81

PnL

-$254.84

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$39.91

Value

$36.62

PnL

-$3.29

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$29.4

Value

$30.7

PnL

+$1.29

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

WagerWizard<$100

Invested

$13.21

Value

$13.86

PnL

+$0.65

Record

84%

15082-2932 (18014)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.2%

98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.