Dota 2: HULIGANI vs PuckChamp (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group B

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold HULIGANI (56%) · HULIGANI at 70¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 11

HULIGANI70¢PuckChamp30¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

HULIGANI

Consensus Traders

HULIGANI 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$390.76

Smart Money Entry

83¢ → 69.5¢

-16% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralHULIGANI at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

HULIGANI70%

PuckChamp31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

HULIGANI5 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares4,163

Combined PnL+$262.6

PuckChamp4 traders

Total Value$514.65

Total Shares2,362

Combined PnL+$128.16

HULIGANI — 56%PuckChamp — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on HULIGANI. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on PuckChamp) and the top 1000 (8 on HULIGANI) disagree here.

ctrHULIGANI 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedPuckChamp 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000HULIGANI 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU JuiceFarm	HULIGANIavg 83¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$192.04	64% 14-8 (22)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	HULIGANIavg 72¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$13.96	32% 285-613 (898)
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 72¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$30.76
└ PuckChamp leg	PuckChampavg 29.3¢	$469.4	$486.2	+$16.8
CI cigarettes	HULIGANIavg 87.3¢	$713.3	$733.5	+$20.2	53% 5671-5102 (10773)
XT xtxpleasecallme	HULIGANIavg 81.8¢	$502.49	$557.37	+$54.88	41% 3122-4487 (7609)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	PuckChampavg 12.8¢	$121.66	$229.58	+$107.92	53% 1801-1611 (3412)
CA calculate10	HULIGANIavg 72.1¢	$432.4	$191.27	-$4.95	22% 28-99 (127)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	PuckChampavg 16.2¢	$100	$187.2	+$87.2	46% 430-500 (930)
VeryLucky888CTR	PuckChampavg 15.8¢	$122.72	$60.67	-$36.56	51% 446-422 (868)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	PuckChampavg 16.9¢	$67.6	$37.2	-$30.4	15% 142-834 (976)
RL RLWG<$100	HULIGANIavg 82¢	$4.1	$4.54	+$0.44	67% 1645-796 (2441)

JuiceFarm

HULIGANI

Invested

$2,075.44

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$192.04

Record

64%

14-8 (22)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$1,731.76

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$13.96

Record

32%

285-613 (898)

Both legs:

HULIGANI$1,201.0772¢-$30.76

PuckChamp$469.429.3¢+$16.8

cigarettes

HULIGANI

Invested

$713.3

Value

$733.5

PnL

+$20.2

Record

53%

5671-5102 (10773)

xtxpleasecallme

HULIGANI

Invested

$502.49

Value

$557.37

PnL

+$54.88

Record

41%

3122-4487 (7609)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

PuckChamp

Invested

$121.66

Value

$229.58

PnL

+$107.92

Record

53%

1801-1611 (3412)

calculate10

HULIGANI

Invested

$432.4

Value

$191.27

PnL

-$4.95

Record

22%

28-99 (127)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

PuckChamp

Invested

$100

Value

$187.2

PnL

+$87.2

Record

46%

430-500 (930)

VeryLucky888CTR

PuckChamp

Invested

$122.72

Value

$60.67

PnL

-$36.56

Record

51%

446-422 (868)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

PuckChamp

Invested

$67.6

Value

$37.2

PnL

-$30.4

Record

15%

142-834 (976)

RLWG<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.54

PnL

+$0.44

Record

67%

1645-796 (2441)

Research grade

NeutralHULIGANI at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on HULIGANI. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on PuckChamp) and the top 1000 (8 on HULIGANI) disagree here.

ctrHULIGANI 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedPuckChamp 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000HULIGANI 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that HULIGANI wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.